Mon 3 Oct 2011, 13:41 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil fell after closing last week at a one-year low, on concern that Greece will default on debt payments, leading to slower economic growth and fuel consumption. Futures slipped as much as 2.3 percent after dropping 17 percent since the end of June in the worst quarter since 2008. Reports this week may show manufacturing in the U.S., barely grew last month, while job growth failed to cut unemployment. European finance ministers meet today in Luxembourg to weigh the threat of a Greek default.

OPEC Oil price has been dropping for four consecutive weeks. During the last four weeks of September, OPEC weekly average oil price fell by 6.4 percent, decreasing from 110.12 U.S. dollars a barrel to 103.07.

The Stochastic indicator at the WTI chart is still slightly bullish this morning while the two lines of the indicator at the brent and the gasoil chart have converged and are thus in neutral mode for the time being. Futures are likely to consolidate today, so technical analysts, with the market taking cues mainly from foreign exchange and stock markets. Investors are expected to square risky positions and to avoid any major positioning ahead of the weekend, today also being the end of the quarter. The upper line of the trendchannels will limit today's gains after having proved strong yesterday, while there is still room for more downside target. So analysts maintain a bearish trading bias in anticipation of fresh lows. The WTI crude is supported at 80.50 dollars today, its first resistance is seen at 83.40 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 105.80 dollars, its first support is at 102.60 dollars.

U.S.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 30-9)

380cst $611
180cst $657
MGO $904

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 30-9)

380cst $613
180cst $659
MGO $906

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is dropping like a stone with WTI -$4.22 Singapore paper is gaining bearish momentum losing with -$11.80 for 180cst and -$11.25 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst -$12.35 and 380cst -$11.00 with MGO Oct contracts at -$1.75 and for Nov at -$2.40. The cargo market is losing as well with 180cst -$5.77, 380cst -$6.03 and MGO -$1.71.

The Singapore fuel oil markets lost more than $5.50 during the Platts window last Friday. The Singaporeheavy residual inventory builds by 0.91 mbbl to 9.77mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums strengthened to $18.50 above cargo prices last Friday. This morning both markets are trading lower.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $640
180 cst $649
MDO $883

Fujairah (delivered indications 3-10)

380cst $636
180cst $645
MGO $1070

Avails issue are sustaining the market.

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Trading activity in the Northwest European market remained subdued Friday as Brent crude futures shed over $1/barrel on bearish European equities markets. Ongoing concerns over the eurozone debt crisis continued to dominate the markets. Bunker values in the main ports moved down following slimmer FOB Rotterdambarges that weakened $3.25/mt day-on-day. Rotterdam continued to see limited high and low sulfur fuel oil supplies on prompt inquiries. HSFO is very tight but LSFO availability is even worse. In the MOC 1% was traded at $ 618 with hs $ 598-602 levels traded.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 600
(1.0 %) :$ 625
180cst: $ 621
(1.0 %):$ 649
MGO 0.1%S: $ 875

MGO  

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