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Technical indicators: neutral to bullish

Oil prices lost some of its recent gains after a temporary rise yesterday that took crude above $100 to end with positive gains. Today the bearishness is back to pressure crude lower as seemingly the downside correction has not come to an end. Temporary support to crude was seen from the strong Chinese trade figures, as the nation’s exports surged to a record on strong global demand, while oil imports rose 3.0% in April all supporting crude higher. Nevertheless, the fear over monetary tightening from China offset the positive impact of the news.

Yesterday oil prices rose in electronic trading on a slightly weaker dollar and technically driven buying orders. The dollar's strong rise later in the day weighed on the oil complex after the opening of NYMEX session. Led by the gasoline contract in New York, oil prices surged across the board later in the session on news that oil shipments were disrupted by high water and floods at the Mississippi and Ohio river, endangering gasoline supply in particular.

OPEC: Qatar's Energy Minister told reporters on the sidelines of an industry meeting that the upcoming OPEC meeting could not be expected to make any major decision on output quota and ruled out any "dramatic" action to control prices, insisting that production and supplies were at healthy levels and there was no shortage of supply. Many countries, especially from OPEC, have offset the shortfall caused by the unrest in Libya and higher demand from Japan could be dealt with.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 919.75 dollars Monday night. This was 8.75 dollars below Friday's settlement. Volume with some 43,500 deals below average.

The Stochastic indicator at the brent, the WTI and the gasoil chart remain clearly bullish. The RSI at the brent chart crossed the 30% line last night, giving a buying signal. Should the indicator at the WTI and the gasoil chart cross the line as well, more technical buying orders will be triggered. Technical analysts forecast rising prices for today with a test of Monday's highs. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 100.05 dollars, the first resistance at 103.40 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 116.50 dollars, its first support is at 113.00 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing. Oil futures ease in East Asia and Globex electronic trading this morning as traders take profit in anticipation of a further rise in weekly U.S. crude inventories. News that CME Group hiked trading margins for WTI crude futures also weigh on prices. The traded volume is well above average.

Survey of US petroleum inventories due out tonight at 22:30 (API) and Wednesday at 16:30 (DOE):

crude oil +1.1; distillates +0.7; gasoline -0.2 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 9-5)

380 cst $624
180 cst $659
MDO $954

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 9-5)

380 cst $626
180 cst $663
MDO $958

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is gaining still with WTI +$2.13 Singapore paper is reflecting the bounce with +$11.50 for 180 cst and +$11.45 for 380 cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst +$11.90 and 380cst +$10.80 with MGO May contracts at +$1.49 and for Jun at +$1.56 The cargo market is starting to react to the bullishness with 180cst +$26.28 380cst +$26.11 and MGO +$4.19.

The Singapore fuel oil markets gain back some grounds and rose more than $26.0 yesterday during the Platts window pricing in volatility seen in crude futures. Although there was a rise in outright prices, prices remain attractive as compared to the last week levels. The bunker delivered premiums were up more than $10.0/mt above cargo prices yesterday.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $652
180 cst $663
MDO $952

Fujairah (delivered indications 10-5)

380cst: $650
180cst: $679
MGO: $1045

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $624
(1.0%): $662
180cst: $649
(1.0%): $687 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $940