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Technical indicators: neutral to bullish

Crude futures are seen slightly lower this morning as market participants are expected to take some profit after Friday's gains. However, as street protests in Cairo showed no sign of abating, investors remain worried that political upheaval could hit other Arab countries, potentially disrupting oil production in the region.

Oil prices rose in New York Friday after the release of positive US economy data and worries over supply disruptions in the wake of the riots in Egypt. Even though short of expectations, US GDP rose in the fourth quarter and Michigan sentiment came in higher. The price rally accelerated after oil futures breached several resistance lines.

OPEC’s Secretary General Mr El-Badri warned that the Egypt crisis could cut the flow of crucial supplies through the Suez Canal to the West. 'If we see a real shortage, we will need to act,' he told reporters on the sidelines of an oil conference in London. However, Mr El-Badri stressed that 'the market is well supplied' with strong inventories and 'demand is less than last year' at this time.

ICE Gasoil February settled at 824.25 dollars Friday night. This was 7.25 dollars above Thursday's settlement. Volume with some 55,700 deals on average.

ICE and NYMEX hit the upper limits of their respective trendchannels and seem ready for more upward corrections. ICE and NYMEX products are still seen following the brent for the time being. The Stochastic indicator gives a bullish signal for all contracts and the RSI for NYMEX crude entered bullish territory. The first resistance of the WTI crude is seen at 91.00 dollars, the first support at 89.35 dollars. The first support for the brent is seen at 99.00 dollars, an important psychological resistance at 100.00 dollars. Above this level, more technical buying orders are seen.

U.S.

NYMEX losing: Oil crude futures are flat in Asian trading hours and electronic Globex trade this morning, after the Brent had climbed near 100 dollars for a barrel and Asian stocks fell on worries over Egypt. The WTI crude is trading well below 90.00 dollars. The traded volume is above.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 28/1)

380 cst $525
180 cst $560
MDO $848

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 28/1)

380 cst $528
180 cst $562
MDO $851

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is jumping up, surging with WTI +$4.10. Singapore paper is reflecting the bullishness with Feb +$9.30 for 180 cst and +$8.50 for 380 cst, and for Mar 180 cst +$9.25 and 380cst +$8.45 with MGO Feb contracts at +$1.22 and for Mar at +$1.24. The cargo market is cooler with with 180cst +$3.02, 380cst +$3.02 and MGO +$0.08.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were up $3.0 during the Platts window tracking strong crude movement. The Asian Fuel Oil cracks have weakened as fuel oil swaps lag. The delivered bunker premiums were higher than $20.0 above cargo prices last Friday boosted up by strong bunker demand. Bunker fuel swaps closed the week with a gain of more than $5.50 in the front of the curve both in Rotterdam and Singapore. Forward curve maintains backwardation in the front in both markets. This morning both markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $565
180 cst $573
MDO $836

Fujairah (delivered indications 31/1)

380cst: $577
180cst: $614
MGO: $910

Rotterdam (delivered indications)

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $520
(1.0%): $530
180cst: $536
(1.0%): $549 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $832