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Technical indicators: neutral to bearish

After having found early support on a weaker dollar, oil prices gave back some gains following the release of economic data from the USA. U.S. consumer confidence unexpectedly deteriorated in December, hurt by increasing worries about the jobs market. Yet in a very thin trade, oil's volatility eventually helped it to a slightly higher settlement. The oil market continued to alternate small gains with small declines, as prices idled quietly on light between-holiday volume also in after-hour trading last night in New York, still moving in a tight range and lacking direction in the absence of any important economic news and unimpressed by the movements of the US dollar. API petroleum inventories released at 22:30 had no immediate impact on prices. A technical triangle has formed for the WTI crude contract. The direction in which prices break the triangle is important for further price development. The impetus needed for an upside break might come with the release of the DOE's fuel stocks report later today. Both Stochastic and RSI indicator remain in overbought territory, the Stochastic is still seen slightly bearish. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 90,90 dollar today, the first resistance at 91,40 dollars.

After a brief recovery at Midday oil prices fell until first support lines. The WTI crude breached the mark of 90.90 dollars. Market participants obviously became nervous waiting for the weekly oil inventories and US data to be released in the afternoon. Equity markets will close the books today. After a slight increase in the morning until first resistance lines, oil prices fell back in the wake of weak European equity markets but are recovering at midday in anticipation of of positive US economy data and a draw in US crude stocks. The traded volume is very thin, so any small orders may lead to disproportional price fluctuations.

ICE Gasoil January is expected to open more or less unchanged at 781,00 dollars/ton after settling at 780,00 dollars (official settlement price) Wednesday night. This was 0,25 dollars below Tuesday's settlement. Volume with some 25.700 deals below average.

U.S.

Nymex Access losing: Oil prices are trading marginally higher in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning, WTI crude still holding above 91.00 dollars for a barrel, on positive market sentiment and a slightly weaker dollar. The traded volume is below average.

API stocks: crude oil +3.058; distillates +1.383; gasoline -3.139; refinery utlization +0.2 = 85.6%. Cushing +1.3 at 36.8 million barrels.

Survey was: crude oil -2.8; distillates -0.6; gasoline +1.5 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization: -0.1%.

Severe cold conditions in the U.S. Northeast, slammed by one of the worst blizzards on record over the Christmas holiday, have depleted fuel stocks and added support to oil prices. But warmer weather is expected to return this weekend, curbing heating fuel demand and pressuring crude prices.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 30/12)

380 cst $493
180 cst $514
MDO $780

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 30/12)

380 cst $497
180 cst $518
MDO $790

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is losing ever so slightly with WTI -$0.05. Singapore paper is trading sideways with +$1.98 for 180 cst and +$2.49 for 380 cst for Jan, and for Feb 180 cst +$1.49 and 380cst +$2.50 with MGO Jan contracts at +$0.30 and for Feb at +$0.33 also. The cargo market is mirroring the listless paper market with 180cst +$2,14, 380cst +$3.22 and MGO +$0.52.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $513
180 cst $523
MDO $793

Rotterdam (delivered indications)

In the MOC 140KT was traded between 486-489 with RWE selling heavily with.

The Northwest European high sulfur fuel oil market is softening with the closure of the FE arb with rising freight rates and a weakening Singapore market leaving a glut of fuel in Rotterdam. Gunvor finished loading its VLCC whilst RWE have bought most of the product for its arb vessels.

The Med is seeing healthy HS buying interest although supply is also plentiful.

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst: $493
(1.5%): $500
180cst: $509
(1.5%): $526 (very low avails)
MGO 0.1%S: $785