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Technical indicators: neutral (ahead of the stock reports)

Oil prices fell back in late NYMEX session and after-hours trading as the dollar recovered, with markets focused on the U.S. Federal Reserve carrying out a fresh round of monetary stimulus as early as next week. Expectations of another rise in US crude stockpiles also weighed on prices. The downtrend is not yet breached for good but has softened overnight. The Stochastic indicator still gives a bullish signal, RSI is still in neutral territory this morning. First WTI crude support line seen at 81.45 dollars today, first resistance line at 83.10 dollars. Oil prices are expected to correct higher today after yesterday's unsubstantiated late losses, yet 83.10 dollar resistance for the WTI crude is seen strong.

ICE Gasoil October is expected to open 1,50 to 3,00 dollars lower at about 708,00 dollars/ton after settling at 710,25 dollars (official settlement price) Monday night. This was 10,25 dollars above Friday's settlement. Volume with some 55,700 deals above average.

USA: Sales of used homes unexpectedly increased by 10.0% to an annual rate of 4.53 million in September, after 4.13 mio in August. Economists had expected existing home sales to rise to an annual rate of 4.35 million. The Chicago Fed National Activity index for September fell to -0.58 points after a reading of -0.49 in August.

U.S.

Nymex Access : Oil futures are flat in Asian trading hours and NYMEX electronic trading this morning, traders eyeing more US economy data to be released in the afternoon. No news in the markets. The traded volume is on average.

API data will be released Tuesday at 22:30, DOE data Wednesday at 16:30. crude oil +0.6; distillates -0.6; gasoline -0.2 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization: +0.4%;

Houston (ex-wharf indications 25-10)

380cst: $460
180cst: $480
MGO: $746

Very tight avails for 180cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 25-10)

380cst: $462
180cst: $482
MGO: $749

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs local time)

Crude is losing after the overdone surges with WTI -$0.68. Singapore paper is reflecting the slight softness 180cst -$4.40 and 380cst -$5.30 for Nov, and Dec 180 cst +$4.60 and 380cst -$6.05 with MGO Nov contracts -$1.27 and for Dec at -$1.28. The cargo market is also bearish with 180cst -$6.14, 380cst -$6.22 and MGO -$1.15.

The Singapore fuel oil markets rebounded strongly and opened up by more than $11.50/mt tracking crude gains during the Platts window. The cargo discount premium has reduced ranging -$2.0 to -$1.5 currently. The delivered bunker premiums were more than $2.0 above cargo prices yesterday.

High premiums for prompt deliveries:

380cst: $469
180cst: $479
MGO: $698

Fujairah (delivered indications 26/10)

380cst: $479
180cst: $496
MGO: $742

Rotterdam

Yesterday (Only barge trade deals of >2 KT reported) 26KT was traded in the MOC between 448,00-453,50 with Gunvor as the main seller to BP and Mercuria as the main buyers.

It is likely some of the product held in regional storage in NW Europe will be offered into the wider market in the short-term as a narrowing contango structure makes storage economics less attractive if the contango tightened to less than $4/mt, offloading could become a more viable option although some think product won't start to move until Q1 2011. The November-December 1% cargo spread was seen at $4.25/mt Monday, compared with $5.50/mt a week ago. Circa 900,000 mt LSFO is currently held in tanks in the ARA region, while more product is being held in Scandinavian storage.

380cst: $468
(1.0%): $484
180cst: $473
(1.0%): $497
DMB: N/A
MGO 0.1%S: $712