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Commentary

Brent closed last night down $1.32 to $74.85 and WTI closed at $69.06, down $1.67. So, the right honourable Donald of the United States of 'Merica pulled out of the Iran deal. Not a great shock but I was expecting a little more meat round the bone than just "The US will withdraw from the agreement". I was told as a child to not just moan about a problem when you are faced with one but to look at the problem and come up with a solution, only then can you talk about the problem. The market reacted negatively upon hearing contrary news reported from CNN, before correcting soon after, then Asia woke up and said Oh crikey! Where will we get our crude from? And the market rallied 1.70 and has been trading there, and now rising again. However, I'll tell you where you'll get your crude from - the US of course! Call me a sceptic, call me what you want, but I am starting to believe that Trump's energy agenda has now hit a critical moment. Let's face it, since Trump won the election in Nov. 2016 the US was producing 8.7mn bpd. In Apr 2018, the US was producing 10.6mn bpd. That's a 20pct increase in 18 months. So, where is all this crude to go? Simple really, if you knock out one of the world's biggest producers you immediately open a business opportunity where all this crude can go. Trump is a business man and to be a business man you have to make harsh decisions. You can't take away from the fact that the US economy is in pretty good shape, as are US jobs and as is the US energy industry. The market will keep a very close ear to the ground on the reaction from the EU this morning regarding the Iran nuclear deal. Covfefe anyone? Good day.

Fuel Oil Market (May 8)

The front crack opened at -12.65, strengthening to -12.00, before weakening to -12.25. The Cal 19 was valued at - 16.95.

Cash premiums for Asia's 180 cSt high-sulphur fuel oil edged higher on Tuesday, moving away from a near threeweek low in the previous session, amid active trade of physical cargoes of the fuel in the Singapore trading window.

Despite the elevated physical trade volumes, some industry participants said the Singapore fuel oil market was still facing shortages of blend-stock material and ample supplies of high-viscosity, high-density fuel oil. The June viscosity spread was trading at $10.25 a tonne at 5:22pm Singapore time (0922 GMT), up 25 cents a tonne from the previous session

Economic Data and Events: (Times are London.)

* 12pm: MBA Mortgage Applications for May 4 (prior -2.5%)

* 1:30pm: U.S. PPI Final Demand m/m for April, est. 0.2% (prior 0.3%)

* 3pm: U.S. Wholesale Inventories m/m for March F, est. 0.5% (prior 0.5%)

* 3:30pm: U.S. EIA weekly oil inventory report

* Today: Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

Singapore 380 cSt

Jun18 - 418.00 / 420.00

Jul18 - 415.25 / 417.25

Aug18 - 412.25 / 414.25

Sep18 - 409.25 / 411.25

Oct18 - 406.25 / 408.25

Nov18 - 403.00 / 405.00

Q3-18 - 412.25 / 414.25

Q4-18 - 404.00 / 406.00

Q1-19 - 393.50 / 396.00

Q2-19 - 383.00 / 385.50

CAL19 - 357.25 / 360.25

CAL20 - 292.00 / 297.00

Singapore 180 cSt

Jun18 - 428.25 / 430.25

Jul18 - 425.75 / 427.75

Aug18 - 423.00 / 425.00

Sep18 - 420.00 / 422.00

Oct18 - 417.00 / 419.00

Nov18 - 413.75 / 415.75

Q3-18 - 422.75 / 424.75

Q4-18 - 414.75 / 416.75

Q1-19 - 404.75 / 407.25

Q2-19 - 394.50 / 397.00

CAL19 - 372.00 / 375.00

CAL20 - 316.00 / 321.00

Rotterdam Barges

Jun18 - 404.75 / 406.75

Jul18 - 401.75 / 403.75

Aug18 - 398.25 / 400.25

Sep18 - 394.25 / 396.25

Oct18 - 390.00 / 392.00

Nov18 - 386.00 / 388.00

Q3-18 - 398.00 / 400.00

Q4-18 - 386.25 / 388.25

Q1-19 - 375.75 / 378.25

Q2-19 - 363.50 / 366.00

CAL19 - 336.00 / 339.00

CAL20 - 267.00 / 272.00