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Commentary

Brent closed last night at $76.17, up $1.30, and WTI closed up $1.01 to settle at $70.73. Unless you've been living under a rock in the middle of the Empty Quarter for the last four months, you may have noticed that the bulls have been pushing the market up on the back of the possibility of the USA pulling out of the Iran agreement. Today is D-day. Tonight at 10pm Dubai time we will hear what his Trumpishness has to say. The bulls will be hoping that they have called it right, and that the US pull out of the deal. I'm sure we will see an initial reaction of flat price rallying, but I think that only if the EU pull out of the agreement as well will it mean that Iran are not able to export as much oil than they currently are, meaning that the market falls in to a supply deficit. Apparently, the fact that the US are producing more than enough crude than they were two years ago to easily plug a gap that Iran could leave behind, but that's about as interesting to the bulls as where Accrington Stanley finish in the league. All eyes on Washington later. Good day

Fuel Oil Market (May 4)

Crack weakend throughout the day opening at -12.50 and closing at -12.80. Selling pressure pulls premiums further away from recent highs -Selling pressure weighed on Asia's 380 cSt fuel oil market for a second session straight on Friday with the front-month time spread and crack trading lower. Cash premiums of the mainstay fuel were also lower amid lower deal values. Improved availability of prompt supplies and profit-taking were among the factors that helped prices retreat from recent multi-month highs, but narrow arbitrage arrivals and firm seasonal demand over the near term are likely to limit further downside potential, trade sources said.

Economic Data and Events: (Times are London.)

* 11am: U.S. NFIB Small Business Optimism for April, est. 104.5 (prior 104.7)

* 3pm: U.S. JOLTS Job Openings for March, est. 6,100 (prior 6,052)

* ~5pm: EIA's monthly STEO report

* 9:30pm: API issues weekly U.S. oil inventory report

* Today: Bloomberg-compiled Refinery Snapshot for U.S. and Canada; gives offline capacity projections for crude units and FCCs

Singapore 380 cSt

Jun18 - 409.75 / 411.75

Jul18 - 407.25 / 409.25

Aug18 - 404.50 / 406.50

Sep18 - 402.00 / 404.00

Oct18 - 399.00 / 401.00

Nov18 - 395.75 / 397.75

Q3-18 - 404.50 / 406.50

Q4-18 - 396.00 / 398.00

Q1-19 - 384.50 / 387.00

Q2-19 - 373.25 / 375.75

CAL19 - 351.75 / 354.75

CAL20 - 287.25 / 292.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Jun18 - 419.50 / 421.50

Jul18 - 417.75 / 419.75

Aug18 - 415.50 / 417.50

Sep18 - 413.00 / 415.00

Oct18 - 410.00 / 412.00

Nov18 - 406.75 / 408.75

Q3-18 - 415.50 / 417.50

Q4-18 - 407.50 / 409.50

Q1-19 - 397.25 / 399.75

Q2-19 - 387.00 / 389.50

CAL19 - 367.25 / 370.25

CAL20 - 311.25 / 316.25

Rotterdam Barges

Jun18 - 396.50 / 398.50

Jul18 - 394.00 / 396.00

Aug18 - 390.75 / 392.75

Sep18 - 387.00 / 389.00

Oct18 - 382.75 / 384.75

Nov18 - 378.75 / 380.75

Q3-18 - 390.50 / 392.50

Q4-18 - 378.75 / 380.75

Q1-19 - 368.25 / 370.75

Q2-19 - 356.00 / 358.50

CAL19 - 331.25 / 334.25

CAL20 - 262.25 / 267.25