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Commentary

Brent closed last night at $72.06, up $1.02, WTI closed up $1.31 to $66.82 and INE closed at Y418.20, or $66.38 per barrel. The market is very happy with Brent being up here - even though EIA showed that crude stocks are up, as well refinery runs, as well as US production. Granted, there are some spikey issues concerning geopolitics in the Middle East at the moment, so I imagine until those are looking to be resolved, we could follow a path upward towards that lofty $80 per bbl. There is one guy that agrees with the fundamental view, though, and a surprising one: Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zangeneh. I quote, "I believe in this situation around 60 (dollars per barrel) is a good price," and "When asked if global benchmark Brent oil trading at $70 a barrel were too high, Zangeneh answered, "Yes.". Now, he didn't give reasons as to why $70 is too high, but let's bear in mind that Iran's government coffers are mainly provided by oil revenues. So why isn't Mr Zangeneh saying the higher the oil price the better? I suppose he has been around long enough to know that once crude spikes to these kinds of numbers it is inevitable the longs will start to exit their positions and maybe we will drop back to that "comfortable" $60 per bbl. Technically, we have moved up to the new highs as predicted; the move now is another more significant pullback, before a move up to new highs again. We may get there before then if things with Iran kick off, though.

Fuel Oil Market (April 11)

The front-month fuel oil crack to Brent crude firmed on Wednesday amid expectations of rising seasonal summer demand and narrowing supplies, industry sources said. The May barges 380 cSt fuel oil crack to Brent crude narrowed its discount to $12.25 a barrel on Wednesday from about $12.45 a barrel in the previous session, a Singapore-based fuel oil broker said. This came despite Brent crude oil prices holding near its highest in nearly three years on Wednesday, supported by political tension in the Middle East, although evidence of rising U.S. crude supply acted as a counterbalance

Economic Data and Events

* 1:30pm: U.S. Initial Jobless Claims, April 7

* 1:30pm: U.S. Continuing Claims, March 31

* 2:45pm: Bloomberg Consumer Comfort, April 8

* Today, no exact timing:

** Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data

** Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry

** OPEC issues Monthly Oil Market Report

** CPC loading program for May

** Azeri Supsa program for May

** IEF in New Delhi, final day

** China Oil Trading Conference 2018 in Shanghai, final day

Singapore 380 cSt

May18 - 383.25 / 385.25

Jun18 - 382.50 / 384.50

Jul18 - 381.25 / 383.25

Aug18 - 379.50 / 381.50

Sep18 - 377.50 / 379.50

Oct18 - 375.50 / 377.50

Q3-18 - 379.25 / 381.25

Q4-18 - 373.50 / 375.50

Q1-19 -365.00 / 367.50

Q2-19 - 357.75 / 360.25

CAL19 - 336.75 / 339.75

CAL20 - 278.75 / 283.75

Singapore 180 cSt

May18 - 393.75 / 395.75

Jun18 - 393.25 / 395.25

Jul18 - 392.00 / 394.00

Aug18 - 390.50 / 392.50

Sep18 - 388.50 / 390.50

Oct18 - 386.50 / 388.50

Q3-18 - 390.25 / 392.25

Q4-18 - 384.50 / 386.50

Q1-19 - 376.25 / 378.75

Q2-19 - 370.25 / 372.75

CAL19 - 351.75 / 354.75

CAL20 - 302.75 / 307.75

Rotterdam Barges

May18 371.75 / 373.75

Jun18 371.25 / 373.25

Jul18 369.75 / 371.75

Aug18 367.50 / 369.50

Sep18 364.75 / 366.75

Oct18 - 361.50 / 363.50

Q3-18 367.25 / 369.25

Q4-18 357.75 / 359.75

Q1-19 348.50 / 351.00

Q2-18 338.75 / 341.25

CAL19 319.00 / 322.00

CAL20 258.00 / 263.00