Wed 11 Apr 2018, 09:02 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Commentary

Brent closed last night at $71.04 up $2.39, WTI closed at $65.51, up $2.09, and INE closed at Y413.50 per bbl or $65.52. Quite a rally we have witnessed over the last 3 days, up 5%. I think we can only attribute this rally to the most tactful man since Jeremy Clarkson asked for some hot food - POTUS Donald Trump. The "Trump effect" really is quite something to behold. The market reacts in the same crazy way as how crazy his tweets are. Covfefe. My favourite Trump tweet, however, was "It's snowing and freezing in New York - We need global warming now!" Anyway, at least it is clear that the market genuinely believes that his threats regarding Russia, Venezuela, China and Iran are bullish for flat price and here Brent is at highs not seen since 2014. In other news, I read that the brainiacs who forecast global oil demand are wrong by approx 1 million bpd. "1 million bpd is still roughly 1 percent of the global market, making it hard to produce accurate forecasts," an OPEC analyst is quoted as saying, who added: "Two or three years ago, the discrepancy was about 2 million barrels per day and now it is about 1 million." So that's encouraging. Apparently, we will see a build in crude and gasoline stocks later, but API forecasts seem to be about as accurate as the same people who forecast demand, so let's wait and see.

Fuel Oil Market (April 10)

Crack opened wide at -11.50 and traded lower throughout the day to close at -12.40 on the back of higher crude.

Viscosity spread retreats from near two-year high - prompt-month viscosity spread slipped to about $13 a tonne on Tuesday after more than five sessions of sharp gains, fuel oil broker sources said. The balance-of-April viscosity spread on Monday settled at a near two-year high of $14 a tonne, up from $12.50 a tonne in the previous session and $9.50 a tonne at the start of the month. "The wide (viscosity) spread points at tight cutterstock availability as well as ample supplies of higher-viscosity material," said JBC Energy in a note to clients on Tuesday. The return of Pakistan as a fuel oil buyer has also tightened the low viscosity pool, said the Vienna-based research

Economic Data and Events

* 12pm: MBA Mortgage Applications, April 6

* 1:30pm: U.S. CPI, March

* 1:30pm: U.S. Real Avg Weekly Earnings, March

* 3:30pm: EIA weekly oil inventory report

* 7pm: Fed Meeting Minutes

* Today, no exact timing:

** Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

** Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi speaks at Atlantic Council, Washington

** 19th China Oil Trading Conference 2018 in Shanghai, speakers are from Sinopec, National Development and Reform Commission, among others, 1st day of 2

** IEF in New Delhi, 2nd day of 3

** CPC loading program for May

** See OIL WEEKLY AGENDA for this week's events

Singapore 380 cSt

May18 - 3376.50 / 378.50

Jun18 - 375.75 / 377.75

Jul18 - 374.50 / 376.50

Aug18 - 372.50 / 374.50

Sep18 - 370.25 / 372.25

Oct18 - 368.25 / 370.25

Q3-18 - 372.50 / 374.50

Q4-18 - 366.25 / 368.25

Q1-19 - 358.00 / 360.50

Q2-19 - 351.00 / 354.00

CAL19 - 327.00 / 332.00

CAL20 - 269.00 / 277.00

Singapore 180 cSt

May18 - 388.25 / 390.25

Jun18 - 387.50 / 389.50

Jul18 - 386.50 / 388.50

Aug18 - 384.50 / 386.50

Sep18 - 382.50 / 384.50

Oct18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Q3-18 - 384.50 / 386.50

Q4-18 - 378.25 / 380.25

Q1-19 - 370.25 / 372.75

Q2-19 - 364.00 / 367.00

CAL19 - 342.50 / 347.50

CAL20 - 293.00 / 301.00

Rotterdam Barges

May18 364.75 / 366.75

Jun18 364.00 / 366.00

Jul18 362.25 / 364.25

Aug18 360.00 / 362.00

Sep18 357.25 / 359.25

Oct18 - 354.00 / 356.00

Q3-18 359.75 / 361.75

Q4-18 350.00 / 352.00

Q1-19 341.50 / 344.00

Q2-18 332.25 / 335.25

CAL19 310.00 / 315.00

CAL20 260.50 / 268.50

BP  

CMA CGM Notre Dame vessel at Singapore Port. Singapore 12-month bunker calls hit all-time high in July  

TTM calls at world's largest bunkering hub reach record levels despite softer sales volumes.

Cargo port in Singapore. Singapore T3M bunker sales stay below 14m tonnes for fourth month running  

Rolling three-month volumes remain subdued despite modest month-on-month recovery in July.

Shore power system launch at Port of Callao. Peru’s Port of Callao launches first shore power system in Latin America  

DP World Callao’s onshore power supply system could cut over 6,300 tonnes of CO₂ annually.

Aristodimos vessel. New Times Shipbuilding delivers LNG dual-fuel crude oil tanker to Capital  

Chinese yard hands over 155,500-dwt vessel in ceremony attended by owner’s representative.

MSC Sabrina and Alice Cosulich ship-to-ship (STS) bunkering operation. Shell completes maiden LNG bunkering operation in Valencia  

Delivery to MSC vessel facilitated by Fratelli Cosulich said to be first-ever LNG bunker supply at Spanish port.

Marina Bay Sands, Singapore. PIL hiring senior marine fuels executive to manage global bunkering operations  

Singapore-based role includes oversight of fuel procurement and delivery operations, covering PIL's fleet of container and multi-purpose vessels.

Steel-cutting ceremony of vessels with builder's hull nos. CHB2083 and CHB2084. Changhong International Shipbuilding cuts steel on two more 3100-teu boxships for Costamare  

HSFO-fuelled vessels feature scrubbers, SCR systems and shore power connections to meet emissions requirements.

Decab Hub and MMMCZCS logos. Lloyd’s Register and Maersk Mc-Kinney Møller Center launch ammonia safety and training resources for shipping  

New tools aim to help operators build the safety management and competency frameworks needed for ammonia-fuelled vessels.

Kevin Dohmen, IBT Bunkering & Trading. IBT Bunkering & Trading appoints Kevin Döhmen to manage new Singapore office  

Döhmen tasked with developing IBT’s operation in the Asian city-state.

Peak Skarv 3 vessel. Peak takes delivery of third S-class vessel and cuts steel for ammonia-fuelled ship  

Norwegian operator marks two events at Chinese yard as ammonia-powered newbuild programme advances.