Wed 11 Apr 2018, 09:02 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



Commentary

Brent closed last night at $71.04 up $2.39, WTI closed at $65.51, up $2.09, and INE closed at Y413.50 per bbl or $65.52. Quite a rally we have witnessed over the last 3 days, up 5%. I think we can only attribute this rally to the most tactful man since Jeremy Clarkson asked for some hot food - POTUS Donald Trump. The "Trump effect" really is quite something to behold. The market reacts in the same crazy way as how crazy his tweets are. Covfefe. My favourite Trump tweet, however, was "It's snowing and freezing in New York - We need global warming now!" Anyway, at least it is clear that the market genuinely believes that his threats regarding Russia, Venezuela, China and Iran are bullish for flat price and here Brent is at highs not seen since 2014. In other news, I read that the brainiacs who forecast global oil demand are wrong by approx 1 million bpd. "1 million bpd is still roughly 1 percent of the global market, making it hard to produce accurate forecasts," an OPEC analyst is quoted as saying, who added: "Two or three years ago, the discrepancy was about 2 million barrels per day and now it is about 1 million." So that's encouraging. Apparently, we will see a build in crude and gasoline stocks later, but API forecasts seem to be about as accurate as the same people who forecast demand, so let's wait and see.

Fuel Oil Market (April 10)

Crack opened wide at -11.50 and traded lower throughout the day to close at -12.40 on the back of higher crude.

Viscosity spread retreats from near two-year high - prompt-month viscosity spread slipped to about $13 a tonne on Tuesday after more than five sessions of sharp gains, fuel oil broker sources said. The balance-of-April viscosity spread on Monday settled at a near two-year high of $14 a tonne, up from $12.50 a tonne in the previous session and $9.50 a tonne at the start of the month. "The wide (viscosity) spread points at tight cutterstock availability as well as ample supplies of higher-viscosity material," said JBC Energy in a note to clients on Tuesday. The return of Pakistan as a fuel oil buyer has also tightened the low viscosity pool, said the Vienna-based research

Economic Data and Events

* 12pm: MBA Mortgage Applications, April 6

* 1:30pm: U.S. CPI, March

* 1:30pm: U.S. Real Avg Weekly Earnings, March

* 3:30pm: EIA weekly oil inventory report

* 7pm: Fed Meeting Minutes

* Today, no exact timing:

** Genscape weekly ARA crude stockpiles report

** Eni CEO Claudio Descalzi speaks at Atlantic Council, Washington

** 19th China Oil Trading Conference 2018 in Shanghai, speakers are from Sinopec, National Development and Reform Commission, among others, 1st day of 2

** IEF in New Delhi, 2nd day of 3

** CPC loading program for May

** See OIL WEEKLY AGENDA for this week's events

Singapore 380 cSt

May18 - 3376.50 / 378.50

Jun18 - 375.75 / 377.75

Jul18 - 374.50 / 376.50

Aug18 - 372.50 / 374.50

Sep18 - 370.25 / 372.25

Oct18 - 368.25 / 370.25

Q3-18 - 372.50 / 374.50

Q4-18 - 366.25 / 368.25

Q1-19 - 358.00 / 360.50

Q2-19 - 351.00 / 354.00

CAL19 - 327.00 / 332.00

CAL20 - 269.00 / 277.00

Singapore 180 cSt

May18 - 388.25 / 390.25

Jun18 - 387.50 / 389.50

Jul18 - 386.50 / 388.50

Aug18 - 384.50 / 386.50

Sep18 - 382.50 / 384.50

Oct18 - 380.50 / 382.50

Q3-18 - 384.50 / 386.50

Q4-18 - 378.25 / 380.25

Q1-19 - 370.25 / 372.75

Q2-19 - 364.00 / 367.00

CAL19 - 342.50 / 347.50

CAL20 - 293.00 / 301.00

Rotterdam Barges

May18 364.75 / 366.75

Jun18 364.00 / 366.00

Jul18 362.25 / 364.25

Aug18 360.00 / 362.00

Sep18 357.25 / 359.25

Oct18 - 354.00 / 356.00

Q3-18 359.75 / 361.75

Q4-18 350.00 / 352.00

Q1-19 341.50 / 344.00

Q2-18 332.25 / 335.25

CAL19 310.00 / 315.00

CAL20 260.50 / 268.50

BP  

Bermuda Container Line (BCL) logo. Bermuda Container Line imposes emergency bunker surcharge citing Iran War fuel price spike  

Shipping operator to add $150 per TEU charge from 1 May amid geopolitical fuel cost pressures.

China flag. Zhejiang’s first methanol-powered container ship launches in Jiaxing  

Vessel uses methanol propulsion technology to reduce carbon dioxide emissions by 90%.

TES flag with a model vessel in the background. TES joins SEA-LNG coalition to advance e-methane as marine fuel  

Green energy company targets 1m tonnes annual e-methane production by 2030 for shipping decarbonisation.

Ethanol and methanol workshop graphic. IBIA to host workshop on ethanol and methanol marine fuels during Singapore Maritime Week  

Half-day event will examine alcohol-based fuel pathways and integration into shipping’s multi-fuel landscape.

Steel-cutting ceremony for 13,000-dwt vessel. ROC begins construction of second chemical tanker for Essberger  

Chinese shipbuilder holds steel-cutting ceremony for 13,000-dwt methanol-ready vessel with ice class capability.

Norsepower and CHIC sign agreement. Norsepower and Cosco Shipping Heavy Industry Equipment sign wind propulsion cooperation agreement  

Wind propulsion technology provider partners with Chinese shipyard to scale rotor sail production.

Wärtsilä logo. Shipping firms struggle to prioritise decarbonisation investments amid regulatory uncertainty, Wärtsilä survey finds  

Survey of 225 maritime executives reveals 70% say uncertainty hinders investment decisions despite regulatory pressure.

IMT Isca G-Flex vessel render. Longitude Engineering unveils IMT Isca G-Flex PSV design with alternative fuel capability  

Naval architecture firm launches adaptable platform support vessel design based on the IMT-984 G-Class hull.

Philippos Ioulianou, EmissionLink. Shore power infrastructure is key to cutting ferry emissions in European cities, says EmissionLink  

Port electrification is needed to enable vessels to switch off engines at berth, reducing urban pollution.

Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore logo. Singapore prioritises maritime resilience amid geopolitical uncertainty, eyes digitalisation and green fuels  

MPA chief outlines the sector’s adaptation to supply chain disruptions while advancing automation and alternative fuels.