---

Commentary

Brent crude futures were down 11 cents at $66.28 a barrel at 06:02GMT, and U.S. WTI crude futures were at $62.70 a barrel, down 7 cents from their last settlement. For the first time yesterday the LOOP was included in the EIA data publications. It has now developed the ability to bring in VLCCs in its deepwater port and including its shipment of 2 mil bbls alone, it can explain the larger-than-expected draw down in U.S. stocks. The shifting oil market is going to produce some interesting movements in oil in the coming decade. With exports rising and imports falling in the U.S., crude patterns will shift westwards from that continent, the product production in regions such as Europe which is fuel heavy and the competition it is going to have with U.S. refining. I got a very good bit of advice the other day: buy bunker barges and product tankers. There is going to be a lot of moving of product around with 2020 localised shortages of fuel everywhere while we get over the teething problems in the transition period. Anyway, after a week of intense meetings and events, I am signing off.

Fuel Oil Market (February 22)

The front crack opened at -9.75, strengthening to -9.55, before weakening to -9.75. The Cal 19 was valued at -14.55.

Asia's front-month high-sulphur fuel oil crack narrowed its discount to Brent crude on Thursday, edging away from a near-two-week low in the previous session as official data showed Singapore fuel oil inventories at a five-week low. The March 180 cSt fuel oil crack to Brent crude was trading at about minus $7.04 a barrel by the end of Asia trading hours, up from a two-week low of minus $7.30 in the previous session.

Singapore weekly onshore fuel oil inventories fell 6 percent to a five-week low of 21.431 million barrels (about 3.2 million tonnes) in the week to Feb. 20. This came as fuel oil net imports into Singapore fell 63 percent from the previous week to 374,000 tonnes in the week to Feb. 20. Compared with year-ago levels, onshore fuel oil inventories were 20 percent lower.

Economic Data and Events

* 6pm: Baker Hughes rig count

* ~ 6pm: ICE wkly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil

* 8:30pm: Commodity Futures Trading Commission weekly scheduled report on futures and options positions

* Quarterly survey on oil investments published by Statistics Norway

* Nigeria Petroleum Summit in Abuja, final day

Singapore 380 cSt

Mar18 - 362.50 / 364.50

Apr18 - 362.25 / 364.25

May18 - 362.00 / 364.00

Jun18 - 361.25 / 363.25

Jul18 - 360.25 / 362.25

Aug18 - 359.00 / 361.00

Q2-18 - 361.75 / 363.75

Q3-18 - 358.75 / 360.75

Q4-18 - 353.50 / 356.00

Q1-19 - 345.25 / 347.75

CAL19 - 312.00 / 316.00

CAL20 - 232.25 / 240.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Mar18 - 369.50 / 371.50

Apr18 - 369.00 / 371.00

May18 - 368.50 / 370.50

Jun18 - 368.00 / 370.00

Jul18 - 367.00 / 369.00

Aug18 - 365.75 / 367.75

Q2-18 - 368.50 / 370.50

Q3-18 - 365.50 / 367.50

Q4-18 - 360.50 / 363.00

Q1-19 - 353.00 / 355.50

CAL19 - 321.25 / 325.25

CAL20 - 248.00 / 256.00

Rotterdam Barges

Mar18 350.25 / 352.25

Apr18 350.00 / 352.00

May18 349.25 / 351.25

Jun18 348.25 / 350.25

Jul18 346.75 / 348.75

Aug18 344.75 / 346.75

Q2-18 349.00 / 351.00

Q3-18 344.50 / 346.50

Q4-18 335.50 / 338.00

Q1-19 327.00 / 329.50

CAL19 288.25 / 292.25

CAL20 218.25 / 226.25