Wed 16 Aug 2017 09:07

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed up $0.07 last night to $50.80 and WTI closed down $0.04 to $47.55. So API came out with their brilliant, accurate figures last night and said that crude stocks drew by just over 9 million barrels last week. Good news, right? Well, it's difficult to say to be honest. It's peak driving season and gasoline inventories apparently built last week so that's not particularly encouraging. Cushing stocks also rose by about 1.5mn bbls, but the breadwinner at the moment is distillates. That showed a draw of supposedly 4mn bbls-ish. Refinery runs are up and who can blame them? I think that this particular run up on distillates is coming to an end, and with the crack hovering around the $20 mark, I don't think it is a bad time to sell it, in my humble opinion. This begs the question: are we viewing driving season incorrectly? Could it be that Ford Pickups are now diesel-powered and not big thirsty gasoline-powered V8's? What next? A Texan driving a Toyota Prius? Nah. I think the distillate draws are mostly down to the fact that the US are just becoming more and more aggressive as a products exporter, as well as a crude exporter. We shall wait and see for the end of driving season, I guess, before opining. One thing that hasn't been spoken about much his year is hurricane season. We are fast approaching peak season and it seems about as windy as an asthmatic mouse blowing through a vuvuzela.

Economic Data/Events: (UK times)

* 12pm: U.S. MBA Mortgage Applications, Aug. 11

* 1:30pm: U.S. Housing Starts, July

* 3:30pm: EIA weekly oil inventory report; TOPLive blog coverage begins 3:20pm

* 7pm: FOMC meeting minutes

** OPEC Monthly Oil Market Report, usually ~11am-12pm

** India celebrates World Biofuel Day, speakers include Oil Minister Dharmendra Pradhan; Power Minister Piyush Goyal and Indian Oil Corp. Chairman Sanjiv Singh

** U.S. updates El Nino/La Nina monthly forecast

** Iraqi loading programs for September

Singapore 380 cSt

Sep17 - 299.25 / 301.25

Oct17 - 298.50 / 300.50

Nov17 - 297.50 / 299.50

Dec17 - 296.75 / 298.75

Jan18 - 295.75 / 297.75

Feb18 - 294.75 / 296.75

Q4-17 - 297.50 / 299.50

Q1-18 - 295.25 / 297.25

Q2-18 - 294.25 / 296.75

Q3-18 - 293.25 / 295.75

CAL18 - 293.00 / 296.50

CAL19 - 287.25 / 292.25

CAL20 - 269.25 / 276.25

Singapore 180 cSt

Sep17 - 304.25 / 306.25

Oct17 - 304.00 / 306.00

Nov17 - 303.25 / 305.25

Dec17 - 303.25 / 305.25

Jan18 - 302.25 / 304.25

Feb18 - 301.75 / 303.75

Q4-17 - 303.50 / 305.50

Q1-18 - 302.00 / 304.00

Q2-18 - 301.50 / 304.00

Q3-18 - 301.00 / 303.50

CAL18 - 300.25 / 303.75

CAL19 - 295.75 / 300.75

CAL20 - 278.25 / 285.25

Rotterdam 380 cSt

Sep17 286.00 / 288.00

Oct17 282.75 / 284.75

Nov17 280.00 / 282.00

Dec17 277.50 / 279.50

Jan18 278.50 / 280.50

Feb18 278.75 / 280.75

Q4-17 280.25 / 282.25

Q1-18 279.25 / 281.25

Q2-18 278.00 / 280.50

Q3-18 277.75 / 280.25

CAL18 277.50 / 281.00

CAL19 268.75 / 273.75

CAL20 250.50 / 257.50



Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.

For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.


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