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By Michael Poulson, A/S Global Risk Management

Iranian oil exports likely almost reached 2011 levels (pre-sanctions) of 2.8 mio. barrels per day in September, up from around 2.5 mio. barrels per day in August. Total September output could be around 3.8 mio. barrels per day (from 3.63 mio. in August), and the country states it is aiming at raising output to 4 mio. barrels per day.

The September increase is in accordance with the preliminary deal of last week, where OPEC members among others agreed that Libya, Nigeria and Iran were permitted to produce at maximum levels that make sense. Libya's oil production has increased to 500,000 barrels per day this week and will likely reach 600,000 by the end of October according to the state oil company, NOC. This means that output has doubled since August's average of 260,000 barrels per day.

Tonight, the weekly API oil stocks data will be published ahead of tomorrow's EIA inventory report. Consensus is a build in crude and gasoline stocks, draw in distillates. Last week differed from expectations and showed a draw in crude oil stocks, so we could see additional volatility around the publishing. The last 4 weeks have seen draws in crude oil inventories.

Turning to economic data, yesterday saw stronger than expected U.S. ISM manufacturing numbers (51.5 in September from 49.4 in August). Also, the September UK manufacturing PMI increased to 55.4 (from 53.3 in August), and improvements in Italian, Spanish, French PMIs. Today is thin on economic key numbers, only UK Construction PMI and a FPMC member speech. Tomorrow sees European services PMIs and U.S. ADP Nonfarm Employment Change.

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A/S Global Risk Management is a provider of customised hedging solutions for the management of price risk on fuel expenses. The company has offices in Denmark and Singapore. For further details about its risk management products and services, please call +45 88 38 00 00 or email hedging@global-riskmanagement.com.