Thu 29 Sep 2016, 09:11 GMT

Oil and fuel oil hedging market update


By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services.



By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Well slap my leg and call me Audrey. Brent closed up 2.72 last night to $48.69 and WTI closed at $47.05 up 2.38. Not many of us saw that coming, and for anyone that did then liar liar pants on fire. So apparently, after 6 hours of discussions OPEC have reached an agreement to cut production. We're not sure what it is yet, or how it will be worked out, or who will cut, or when and for how long and by when will they have to start, or how long will it last, or will Iran and Nigeria etc be allowed to return production?, or if Russia will be part of it. So lots of ifs and buts. However, I'm not so sure this is the most interesting part. What is interesting is that they actually are going to do something. Is this the Saudis throwing the towel in? I don't think so but this is a change in agenda, that much is obvious. If I'm honest I thought we would rally more but maybe that can will be kicked down the street for a while yet, roll on end Nov. I imagine a few sore heads in the Bakken/ Permian Base region this morning. A lifeline for the shale boys? You bet your nelly it is. Game on. Good day. OPEC agreed to a preliminary deal that will cut production for the first time in eight years.

Economic data/events:

* 7:50am: Japan Aug. retail trade y/y, est. -1.7% (prior -0.2%); Japan Aug. retail sales m/m, est. -0.6% (prior 1.4%)
* 3:55pm: Germany Sept. unemployment change (000's), est. -5k (prior -7k)
* 4pm: Singapore onshore oil-product stockpile data
* 4:30pm: U.K. Aug. mortgage approvals, est. 60.2k (prior 60.9k)
* 5pm: Eurozone consumer confidence for Sept. F, est. -8.2 (prior -8.2)
* 6pm: Russian refining maintenance schedule from ministry
* 8pm: Germany CPI m/m for Sept. P, est. 0% (prior 0%); Germany CPI y/y for Sept. P, est. 0.6% (prior 0.4%)
* 8:30pm: U.S. wholesale inventories m/m for Aug. P, est. 0% (prior 0%); U.S. GDP annualized q/q for 2q T, est. 1.3%
(prior 1.1%); U.S. personal consumption for 2q T, est. 4.4%
(prior 4.4%); U.S. GDP price index for 2q T, est. 2.3%
(prior 2.3%); U.S. initial jobless claims for Sept. 24, est.
260k (prior 252k); U.S. continuing claims for Sept. 17, est. 2,129k (prior 2,113k)
* Sakhalin Oil & Gas conference, Sakhalin Island
* Middle East Petrotech refining conference, Bahrain
* Platts European Refining Summit, Brussels

Singapore 380 cSt

Oct16 - 257.50 / 259.50
Nov16 - 256.75 / 258.75
Dec16 - 256.50 / 258.50
Jan17 - 256.50 / 258.50
Feb17 - 256.50 / 258.50
Mar17 - 257.00 / 259.00
Q4-16 - 256.00 / 259.00
Q1-17 - 255.25 / 258.25
Q2-17 - 256.50 / 260.50
Q3-17 - 258.75 / 262.75
CAL17 - 257.75 / 261.75
CAL18 - 269.25 / 275.25
CAL19 - 282.75 / 290.75

Singapore 180 cSt

Oct16 - 263.50 / 265.50
Nov16 - 262.50 / 264.50
Dec16 - 262.50 / 264.50
Jan17 - 262.25 / 264.25
Feb17 - 262.75 / 264.75
Mar17 - 263.25 / 265.25
Q4-16 - 261.75 / 264.75
Q1-17 - 261.50 / 264.50
Q2-17 - 263.50 / 267.50
Q3-17 - 265.75 / 269.75
CAL17 - 264.50 / 268.50
CAL18 - 277.75 / 283.75
CAL19 - 291.75 / 299.75

Rotterdam 3.5%

Oct16 242.50 / 244.50
Nov16 240.00 / 242.00
Dec16 238.75 / 240.75
Jan17 240.50 / 242.50
Feb17 241.75 / 243.75
Mar17 242.75 / 244.75
Q4-16 239.75 / 242.75
Q1-17 240.50 / 243.50
Q2-17 242.50 / 246.50
Q3-17 245.00 / 249.00
CAL17 243.25 / 247.25
CAL18 254.50 / 260.50
CAL19 267.25 / 275.25



Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.

For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.


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