Mon 12 Sep 2016, 08:49 GMT

The oil market is crazy, but predictable


Oil and fuel oil hedging market update.



By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed Friday at $48.01 down 1.98 and WTI closed down 1.74 to $45.88. This market is nuts but predictable. So the idea that we will continue to bounce off the $50 per bbl handle is proving correct. Much has been written about the fact that when prices hit $50 the US rig count will increase but as I have said many times before, the dynamic of shale oil is so much more efficient than the somewhat archaic methods of production we are used to seeing, it isn't as price sensitive as some would you have believe, so adapt or perish seems to be the theme. $45 here we come, before someone says: "We are going to meet to discuss prices". Yawnnnn. Good day, and week to all.

- Forces loyal to a powerful Libyan military commander captured two key oil ports from rival fighters, deepening turmoil in the North African nation’s oil industry.

- Appetite for riskier assets such as oil is waning as investors presume that the huge inventory slump--a decline of 14.5 million barrels-- in the U.S. for the week ended Sep 2 was likely only temporary due to the tropical storm Hermine, says ANZ Research. "Another bout of selling saw the commodity complex end [last] week on a negative note. This is likely to continue this week with a lack of data releases keeping current investors positions unchanged."

Economic data/events

* Midday: ICE weekly commitments of traders report for Brent, gasoil
* 1:30pm: Bloomberg forecast of U.S. waterborne LPG exports
* 7pm: EIA to release monthly drilling productivity report
* Today: OPEC monthly oil market report
* Today: Public holiday in Singapore, several Mideast nations including U.A.E.

Singapore 380 cSt

Oct-16 - 245 / 247
Nov-16 - 244.25 / 246.25
Dec16 - 244.25 / 246.25
Jan17 - 244 / 246
Feb-17 - 244.5 / 246.5
Mar-17 - 245 / 247
Q4-16 - 243.5 / 246.5
Q1-17 - 243 / 246
Q2-17 - 245 / 249
Q3-17 - 247.75 / 251.75
CAL17 - 247.75 / 251.75
CAL18 - 260.5 / 266.5
CAL19 - 276.5 / 284.5

Singapore 180 cSt

Oct-16 - 250.25 / 252.25
Nov-16 - 249.75 / 251.75
Dec16 - 249.75 / 251.75
Jan17 - 249.5 / 251.5
Feb-17 - 250.25 / 252.25
Mar-17 - 251 / 253
Q4-16 - 249.25 / 252.25
Q1-17 - 249.5 / 252.5
Q2-17 - 251.75 / 255.75
Q3-17 - 254.75 / 258.75
CAL17 - 255 / 259
CAL18 - 269.5 / 275.5
CAL19 - 285.5 / 293.5

Rotterdam 3.5%

Oct-16 - 232 / 234
Nov-16 - 229.5 / 231.5
Dec16 - 228 / 230
Jan17 - 230 / 232
Feb-17 - 231.25 / 233.25
Mar-17 - 232.25 / 234.25
Q4-16 - 229.5 / 232.5
Q1-17 - 230.75 / 233.75
Q2-17 - 233.25 / 237.25
Q3-17 - 235.75 / 239.75
CAL17 - 234.5 / 238.5
CAL18 - 248.25 / 254.25
CAL19 - 261 / 269



Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.

For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.


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