Fri 9 Sep 2016, 08:29 GMT

Is there a pattern emerging?


Oil and fuel oil hedging market update.



By the Oil Desk at Freight Investor Services Ltd.

Brent closed last night up 2.01 to $49.99 and WTI closed at $47.62 up 2.12. Tommy Cooper once famously said "I used to think drinking was bad for me, so I gave up thinking". Now please do not think I am comparing myself with this quote, far from it, I am comparing the market with this quote. I said yesterday that we would more than likely see a huge drop in crude stocks, the market will take from this that demand is increasing and run away to the hills with it like a 5-year-old child with a new lego set. Next week that same child may just return with the shattered remains as all the crude tankers discharge and crude stocks show a build. We nearly closed at $50 yesterday but don't be surpised if this time next week I am saying we closed at $45. Bear in mind two Fridays ago Brent opened at $49.67, last week it opened at $45.45, today we opened $49.99. Is there a pattern emerging? Of course there is, any numpty can see that. But it's not a nice pattern, it's one of those horrible paisley numbers your nan thought was tasteful in the 80's. Good weekend.

U.S. crude inventories -14.5m bbl to 511.4m bbl in week ended Sept. 2, according to EIA. Saudi Arabia told OPEC that its output dropped by 40k b/d to 10.63m b/d in Aug. as the group debates a deal to curb output to shore up prices.

Economic data/events

* 1:25pm: U.S. Fed Boston President Eric Rosengren is keynote speaker at South Shore Chamber Breakfast in Marriott, Boston
* 3pm: U.S. wholesale inventories m/m for July F, est. 0.1% (prior 0%)
* 6pm: Baker Hughes weekly U.S. oil rig count, prior 407

Singapore 380 cSt

Oct-16 - 256.25 / 258.25
Nov-16 - 255.25 / 257.25
Dec16 - 254.75 / 256.75
Jan17 - 254.5 / 256.5
Feb-17 - 255 / 257
Mar-17 - 255.5 / 257.5
Q4-16 - 254.5 / 257.5
Q1-17 - 253.75 / 256.75
Q2-17 - 255.75 / 259.75
Q3-17 - 258.5 / 262.5
CAL17 - 260.25 / 264.25
CAL18 - 273 / 279
CAL19 - 289 / 297

Singapore 180 cSt

Oct-16 - 261.75 / 263.75
Nov-16 - 261 / 263
Dec16 - 260.75 / 262.75
Jan17 - 260.5 / 262.5
Feb-17 - 261.25 / 263.25
Mar-17 - 262 / 264
Q4-16 - 260.25 / 263.25
Q1-17 - 260.5 / 263.5
Q2-17 - 262.75 / 266.75
Q3-17 - 265.75 / 269.75
CAL17 - 267.5 / 271.5
CAL18 - 282 / 288
CAL19 - 298 / 306

Rotterdam 3.5%

Oct-16 243 / 245
Nov-16 240.5 / 242.5
Dec16 239 / 241
Jan17 241 / 243
Feb-17 242.25 / 244.25
Mar-17 243.25 / 245.25
Q4-16 240.5 / 243.5
Q1-17 241.75 / 244.75
Q2-17 244.25 / 248.25
Q3-17 246.75 / 250.75
CAL17 247 / 251
CAL18 260.75 / 266.75
CAL19 273.5 / 281.5



Founded in 2002, Freight Investor Services is a specialist in dry bulk and commodity derivatives, including cargo freight, iron ore, fertilizer and bunker fuel. The company has offices in London, Dubai, Singapore and Shanghai.

For further details about fuel oil swaps or to discuss trading opportunities, please contact Andrew Cullen, Client Relations & Development Manager, on +44 207 090 1126, or email AndrewC@freightinvestor.com.


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