Fri 9 Sep 2016, 07:48 GMT

EIA data surpasses API's massive drawdown forecast


Drawdown expectations exceeded with the release of official EIA numbers.



Not only did official numbers agree with expectations set by Wednesday's American Petroleum Institute (API) weekly report which suggested record drawdowns in American crude stockpiles, but they surpassed them. After sending the price of crude oil surging, investor hopes for an over ten million barrel drawdown solidified into fact on Thursday with the release of the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA's) official report data, revealing that despite the unbelievable 12.1 million barrel decline in stockpiles suggested by the API, the truth was much better still. In fact, American crude oil inventories dropped by a whopping 14.5 million barrels over the week ending September 2nd.

Analysts point to disruptions caused by Hurricane Hermine and a number of tropical storms affecting the East and Gulf Coasts as main causes for the inventory drop and caution that as weather subsides, inventories are likely to recover. "There's still plenty of oil out there. What we're seeing is the result of storm impacts on vessel shipping," said Andrew Lipow, president of Lipow Oil Associates, "I suspect over the next few weeks we're going to see inventories recover to a certain extent as the imports catch up."

Further news supporting the price of oil came in the form of data released by the General Administration of Customs of the People's Republic of China showing record crude oil imports by the nation for the month of August. China purchased 32.85 million metric tons of crude oil last month, an average of 7.8 million barrels a day, the highest monthly import of the year. Many analysts and investors have been wondering if and when China will be easing up on their recent crude oil buying spree so the August numbers come as some comfort as a drop in import rates by China can only add to global oversupply.

Some analysts point to the slowdown in China's own oil production as evidence that China is unlikely to drop their rate of crude oil importing any time soon. Phil Flynn, senior market analyst at Price Futures Group believes that "the death of Chinese oil demand has been greatly exaggerated. Now with Chinese oil production falling, we will see imports stay on the high side."

By the end of Thursday's session, November Brent crude futures had risen $2.01, or 4.2%, to $49.99 USD a barrel on London’s ICE Futures Exchange, while October West Texas Intermediate gained $2.12, or 4.7%, reaching $47.62 USD a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The day's main influences, the bears and bulls:

The Bears:

- Although bears typically don't begin hibernating until at least a little later in the month, there are scant traces of them at the moment.

The Bulls:

- The U.S. Energy Information Administration’s weekly official data outperformed earlier reports, posting a national stockpile drawdown of 14.5 million barrels.

- China's General Administration of Customs released data showing continuing high crude oil imports for the month of August, bringing in an average of 7.8 million barrels a day.


Athens cityscape. Angelicoussis Group seeks senior marine fuels desk lead in Athens  

Greek shipping group advertises senior bunker procurement role requiring 15 years' experience.

BP logo. BP seeks marine commercial manager in London to support global marine fuels business  

Role at BP Marine falls under BP's GDIST unit — part of its Trading & Shipping (T&S) division.

Hiroyuki Takumi and Wolfgang Dunger. Mitsui E&S completes factory acceptance test of Japan’s first WinGD methanol dual-fuel engine  

Engine set to be installed on the first of four vessels being built for a domestic shipowner.

mtu Series 2000 generator set. Rolls-Royce Power Systems to showcase variable-speed gensets and SCR systems at SMM 2026  

New mtu Series 2000 units claim up to 15% fuel and CO₂ savings over constant-speed alternatives.

CMA CGM Roi Arthur naming ceremony. CMA CGM names 15,000-teu methanol-powered vessel Roi Arthur  

Newbuild joins the French carrier's REX2 service connecting East Asia with the Red Sea.

Quadrise and Licella logo. Quadrise and Licella update joint development agreement to advance HTL-derived marine biofuels  

Amended deal sets a clearer testing roadmap for bio-oil-based emulsion fuels for shipping.

Clean Star vessel. Atlas Maritime takes delivery of dual-fuel LNG PCTC, secures $80,000/day charter  

The 7,000 RT car carrier has been placed on a two-year time charter at a rate Atlas calls record-breaking.

Kota Eagle ship-to-ship (STS) bunkering operation. PIL’s Kota Eagle helps Shanghai pass 2 million cbm LNG bunkering mark  

Milestone said to have been reached when boxship received 4,549 cbm of LNG from SIPG Energy’s LNG bunkering vessel.

Keel-laying ceremony for B100-compatible vessel. Pinnacle Marine lays keel for fourth B100-compatible harbour craft in Singapore newbuild programme  

Singapore operator expands its B100-compatible fleet amid strong chartering demand.

E-fuels volumes per country. Europe risks falling behind China in race to produce e-fuels for shipping  

Europe has 69 e-fuel projects but only six are operational, while China is scaling rapidly.