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Brent crude futures edged higher this morning, adding to strong gains last week, on rising hopes the market has bottomed out though analysts warned it would still take a long time to clear a huge global glut.

The technical constellation pointed to further tests of the upside Friday morning, with the Stochastic indicator providing more buying signals at the Gasoil and the WTI chart. WTI tested its key resistance at 33.35 USD Friday morning. This resistance was soon breached, generating more potential up to upper Bollinger Band was generated. The US crude oil contract even briefly exceeded the upper Bollinger Band. The US GDP grew surprisingly strongly in the last quarter of 2015 (+1.0%; forecast: +0.4%). This sent oil prices notably higher on Friday afternoon. Even so, market fundamentals remained slightly bearish - despite the slightly bullish cues provided by the announcement of a meeting between Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Russia and Venezuela in mid-March. The oil market is still oversupplied and data provider Genscape says that US crude oil stockpiles in Cushing, Oklahoma, have reached yet another record high. Friday evening, investors thus took advantage of the price increase in order to take profits from long positions. Consequently, oil futures declined, ending the day near the opening levels, slightly above the first support.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 325.25 USD on Friday, this was 18.00 USD above Thursday's settlement. With some 48,900 deals, the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The buying signals the Stochastic indicator had given off last week have largely been priced in by now. The lines of the indicator are only drifting apart at the Gasoil chart, leaving some bullish cues. If the lines of the Stochastic indicator cross at the Brent and/or the WTI chart, there will be fresh selling signals. Today's constellation is particularly interesting in the candlestick-chart for the pattern of a Shooting Star has developed at the Brent and the WTI chart. Since oil futures reached new highs on Friday, this might be a bearish signal if prices fail to exceed Friday's highs. At the WTI chart the 21-period moving average could be pivotal in terms of further downward potential. If the US crude oil contract breaks below this marker, selling pressure is likely to increase. WTI might then renewedly approach the lower Bollinger Band. At the Gasoil chart the 7-period and the 21-period moving average might cross. This would also trigger a bearish signal. The technical constellation might thus change today. Oil futures might hit fresh lows. However, oil futures have been trading above Friday's lows so far and fresh cues have been lacking. That is why we are still considering the technical constellation as neutral.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures edged higher in early electronic trading this morning. However, they failed to considerably pull back from Friday's lows. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average this morning. Investors are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the release of some economic indicators.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 29-2)
380cst $145
180cst $227
MGO $347

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 29-2)
380cst $146
180cst $190
MGO $317
Singapore (delivered indications 29-2)

Brent is gaining with -$0.29 for Apr contracts. Singapore paper is up with -$3.70 for 180cst with -$3.75 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180cst -$3.70 and 380cst with -$3.80 with MGO contracts Mar with -$0.48 and in Apr with -$0.45 .The cargo market is up with 180cst +$6.40, 380cst with +$6.81 and MGO with +$0.89.

380cst $158
180cst $168
MGO $296

Fujairah (delivered indications 29-2)

380cst $157
180cst $177
MGO $419

ARA(Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $148
MGO 0.1%S: $293