WinGD and Envision Energy have published a joint study examining the operating costs of vessels using renewable marine fuels, indicating that green ammonia could match the cost of very-low-sulphur fuel oil (VLSFO) and LNG under moderate regulatory conditions.

The study, titled 'Renewable Fuel Economics: An OPEX illustration based on current costs', focuses on container and bulk shipping routes between China and Australia, using lifecycle emissions data and current bunker price assumptions along China’s coastline. The findings suggest that while conventional fuels remain more competitive today, green ammonia could reach similar cost levels and eventually become cheaper under a global regulatory framework.

By 2050, the analysis projects that ammonia could offer a lifecycle operating cost advantage of around 5–6% over LNG.

Frank Yu, senior vice president at Envision Energy, said: “Through this joint study with WinGD, we have mapped a clear economic pathway for renewable fuels. By leveraging AI-driven optimisation at our Chifeng facility to harmonise renewable energy harvesting with fuel production, we have already reached a tipping point where green ammonia competes with VLSFO and LNG.”

The modelling draws on operational data from WinGD’s engine portfolio, including ammonia-fuelled X-DF-A, methanol-fuelled X-DF-M and LNG-fuelled X-DF engines, incorporating fuel consumption, emissions performance and abatement requirements.

The study also indicates that alternatives such as e-LNG and green methanol may require stronger regulatory incentives to become commercially viable, with their competitiveness depending on how quickly production capacity expands.

The collaboration comes as both companies scale up activity in low-carbon fuels. Envision’s green ammonia facility in Chifeng is already producing around 320,000 tonnes per year, with exports having started in late 2025. Output is expected to rise significantly, with production capacity projected to reach 1.5 million tonnes annually by 2028.

Meanwhile, the first ammonia-fuelled engines designed by WinGD are due to enter service later this year, adding to a growing installed base that includes LNG- and methanol-dual-fuel engine technologies.

Yu added: “As we further scale and refine these intelligent technologies, green ammonia will become the most practical and cost-effective choice for the next generation of shipping. This is the certainty we bring to an uncertain market.”

The companies said the study is intended to support industry understanding of the economic role of zero- and near-zero-emission fuels as shipping moves towards decarbonisation targets.