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Market fundamentals were slightly bearish Friday morning, favoring tests of the downside. Although Iraq announced Thursday evening that it would join other producers in freezing output at January levels, Iran is sticking to its plan to increase its output after the lift of sanctions. Up to now, an agreement among OPEC members on an output freeze doesn't seem likely. In the short- and medium-term, freezing production levels wouldn't end the global glut of crude oil, anyway. As to the technical constellation, there were no fresh cues on Friday morning even though we cautioned that the Stochastic indicator might give off selling signals if oil futures broke below Thursday's lows which served as key supports. In the early afternoon oil futures slipped below these supports and so, the Stochastic indicator gave off a selling signal at the Gasoil and the WTI chart. Oil futures sharply declined in the course of the afternoon, with WTI dropping back near 29 USD. Friday evening oil futures regained some ground as the Baker Hughes rig count prompted investors to cover some of their short-positions. Still, oil futures in London and New York ended the day clearly in the red. Despite the rise in oil futures earlier this morning, the Stochastic indicator remains bearish at ICE and NYMEX charts. At the Gasoil and the WTI chart the indicator had already generated selling signals on Friday afternoon. These selling signals have meanwhile been confirmed at the Brent chart. Moreover, the indicator this morning dropped below 50% at the Gasoil chart, indicating more downward potential. The RSI can't give off any signals at the moment. Besides, Friday's lows are renewedly limiting the downside in the near term. That is why we assess the technical constellation as neutral to bearish despite the selling signals provided by the Stochastic indicator. Another technical sell-off is only likely to be triggered if oil futures break below Friday's lows.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 307.75 USD on Friday, this was 13.50 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 64,700 deals, the traded volume (front month) was above average.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures made up for some of Friday's losses in early electronic trading this morning as the Baker Hughes report on the number of active US oil rigs (released Friday evening) prompted market players to cover some of their short-positions. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average this morning, with traders already focusing on the April WTI contract as the March contract will expire this evening. Investors are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the release of some economic indicators, and comments from OPEC.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 22-2)
380cst $139
180cst $215
MGO $345.50

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 22-2)
380cst $144.50
180cst $189.50
MGO $328.50

Singapore (delivered indications 22-2)

Brent is losing on bearish fundamentals with -$0.51 for Apr contracts. Singapore paper is mirroring with -$0.55 for 180cst with -$0.55 for 380cst for Feb, and for Mar 180cst -$0.10 and 380cst with -$1.00 with MGO contracts Feb with -$1.10 and in Mar with -$1.10 .The cargo market is reacting now to the losses on paper with 180cst -$6.09, 380cst with -$6.51 and MGO with -$0.44.

380cst $157
180cst $164
MGO $298

Fujairah (delivered indications 22-2)

380cst $160
180cst $178
MGO $419

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $140
MGO 0.1%S: $290