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Crude oil futures fell this morning, after data showed China's economy expanded at its slowest pace since 2009 in the third quarter.

Market participants still digested the DOE's report on US oil inventories on Friday morning. Due to a US holiday, the DOE only released its data on oil stocks on Thursday last week. Whilst the builds in crude oil stockpiles were clearly bearish, the drop in US oil production bolstered oil futures, prompting traders to cover their short positions. From a merely technical point of view, the buying signals of the Stochastic indicator lent some support. Even so, traders rather tended to cut their riskier positions on Friday. Despite the bullish cues from the Stochastic indicator, upward potential remained capped as the 7-period moving average limited the upside. In the early afternoon, oil futures renewedly retreated but downward potential was limited as well. The supports at 49.40 USD Brent and at 46.35 USD WTI remained strong even though the US crude oil contract briefly dropped below its support. After having hit their lows, oil futures saw an upward correction in the evening. This upward move was accelerated by the Baker Hughes rig count. Oil futures renewedly approached earlier highs and eventually ended the day in the black.

ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 456.25 USD on Friday, this is +6.75 USD above Thursday's settlement. With some 45,800 deals the traded volume (front month) was far above average.

The lines of the Stochastic indicator had already crossed at ICE and NYMEX charts on Friday. This morning, they are still diverging. Although the buying signal had already been generated last week, the indicator is thus still slightly bullish. The 7-period moving averages are currently still capping the upward potential, even though Brent and WTI have already exceeded these markers by an inch in early morning trade. The fact that the 7-period and the 21-period moving averages crossed at the Gasoil chart last week is still a slightly bearish factor. However, this hasn't been confirmed yet at the crude oil charts. In the short-term, the RSI is opposing to the development at the charts, which might point to a change in the direction of oil futures. The technical constellation thus doesn't provide any clear cues. There might be bearish cues as well as bullish cues which is why we assess the technical constellation as neutral.

U.S.

Nymex above average : In electronic trading this morning, oil futures pulled back from the highs they had marked overnight. Compared to Friday, prices are still rather steady, though. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average this morning, with traders already focusing on the December WTI contract, for the November contract is going to expire on Tuesday. Investors are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the release of a few economic indicators. Moreover they will closely eye comments on the meeting between Iran and the West which is taking place in Vienna today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 19-10)
380cst $228
180cst $286
MGO $476

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 19-10)
380cst $238
180cst $289
MGO $477

Singapore (delivered indications 19-10)

Brent is losing with -$0.90. Singapore paper losing with -$3.00 for 180cst with -$3.25 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst -$3.00 and 380cst with -$3.00 with MGO contracts Oct down with -$0.32 and in Nov with -$0.34. The cargo market is gaining with 180cst +$2.44, 380cst with +$1.98 and MGO with +$0.61.

380cst $233
180cst $251
MGO $443

Fujairah (delivered indications 19-10)

380cst $245
180cst $270
MGO $607

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $231
MGO 0.1%S: $428