---

Crude oil futures gave back some of the previous session's strong gains this morning, as ongoing worries over a global supply glut drove down prices.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX already tested their first resistances on Monday morning, leaving them behind rather quickly. Investors ignored the bearish market fundamentals at the beginning of this week although Chinese exports slumped in July, renewedly pointing to a slow down in the economy of the world's second largest oil consumer. China's crude oil imports sharply rose in July but this was rather due to the fact that the country took advantage of lower oil prices to fill its oil reserves than to higher demand in general. Nonetheless, oil futures kept track of their technical rise on Monday, even in spite of the fact that analysts at JP Morgan significantly cut their price forecasts for Brent and WTI. The analysts said that a barrel of Brent should average 52.50 USD in 2016, whereas a barrel of WTI was likely to cost 46.50 USD. Oil futures kept track of their gains, bolstered by technical buying signals from the Stochastic indicator and the RSI. These signals were generated when oil futures breached their first resistances. ICE Gasoil took the lead as market players covered their short positions ahead of the expiry of the August contract on Wednesday. Since the MA 7 was breached, buying pressure persisted until late in the evening. Eventually, Brent also broke above the psychological mark of 50 USD. Even news saying that OPEC is unlikely to hold an extraordinary meeting despite low prices and the imminent return of Iranian crude oil on the global market failed to prevent the technical rise oil futures saw on Monday. The next regular meeting of the cartel is scheduled in December. The steady tendency at oil markets lasted until late in the evening and so oil futures ended the day with considerable gains.

ICE Gasoil contract for August delivery settled at 479.50 USD on Monday, this is +12.00 USD above Friday's settlement. With some 47,700 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The Stochastic indicator generated buying signals at the Gasoil, the Brent and the WTI chart on Monday as its lines crossed. Product futures rose particularly sharply as the RSI provided a buying signal at these charts as well by exceeding 30%. Moreover, Brent and Gasoil surpassed the MA 7 generating further upward potential. WTI hasn't broken above the MA 7 yet. The crude oil futures are still trading within their downtrends. Monday's buying signals are probably priced in given yesterday's rise. The technical indicators are still bullish this morning but in order to regard the constellation as thoroughly bullish, the RSI would have to give buying signals at the WTI and the Brent charts, too. If the crude oil futures broke above their downtrends as well and if WTI exceeded 45 USD sustainably, investors will continue covering many of their short positions. That is why, for the time being, we still assess the technical constellation as neutral to bullish.

U.S.

Nymex above average: After Monday's sharp rise, oil futures consolidated on a higher level in Asian trading and on NYMEX Globex this morning. Whilst the technical constellation still favours further tests of the upside, the bearish market fundamentals continue to weigh on prices. The traded volume at NYMEX is clearly above average at this time of day. Market participants are now waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open as well as for the economic indicators that are on the agenda today. Moreover, they will closely eye the monthly energy reports of OPEC and EIA and on the API's data on US petroleum stocks.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-8)
380cst $243
180cst $389
MGO $498

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-8)
380cst $264
180cst $301
MGO $488

Singapore (delivered indications 11-8)

WTI is bullish with +$0.97. Singapore paper is up with +$1.45. for 180cst up with +$0.25 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst +$1.75 and 380cst with $+1.30 with MGO contracts Aug gaining with +$1.69 and in Sep with +$1.76. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$4.96, 380cst with -$4.12 and MGO with -$0.46.

380cst $263
180cst $278
MGO $446

Fujairah (delivered indications 11-8)

380cst $273
180cst $315
MGO $659

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $263
MGO 0.1%S: $453