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Crude oil futures bounced off the lowest levels of the session this morning, following the release of a mostly bullish report from the International Energy Agency on global oil supply and demand earlier in the day.

Oil futures started strong on Wednesday morning after their price rally on Tuesday and were supported by the bullish fundamental and technical constellation. Futures breached several resistances in the course of the morning and tackled their upward margins. The bullish US oil inventory report as per API which was released on Tuesday and the expectations of a decrease in US oil production pushed oil futures upwards while technically orientated market players kept buying positions due to these bullish signals. The monthly OPEC report which was released around midday didn't cause any bullish surprise. It is rather to be interpreted as slightly bearish due to the increase in US oil production in May. Therefore, traders were waiting for the US oil inventory data as per DOE which was to be released on 4.30 pm. The DOE's figures almost corresponded to the API's figures. This is why the declines in US crude oil and gasoline stocks have already been priced in before. But the increase in US production was surprising and profit taking finally predominated at the oil market after a rather volatile phase and further upward tests. Oil futures slightly increased again in the evening as the world bank revised down its forecast concerning global economic growth in 2015 but oil futures didn't reach fresh highs on Wednesday evening.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 595.00 USD on Wednesday, this is +7.50 USD above Tuesday's settlement. With some 53,000 deals the traded volume (front month) was about on average.

The stochastic indicator's buying signals slightly lose their influence due to the upward movements on Tuesday and Wednesday. Fresh upward margins have been built by the breach of the 7 day moving average and the 21 day moving average but the upper Bollinger band at the WTI chart which was reached yesterday, limits these margins so far. Oil futures could increase again today but the technical constellation lost a part of its bullish influence. The lines of the moving averages at the WTI chart could cross in the course of the day which would trigger a buying signal. All in all, we consider the technical constellation still as slightly bullish this morning even though the bullish influence decreased compared to yesterday.

U.S.

Nymex above average: Oil futures consolidate in a rather narrow range this morning and are waiting for fresh signals which could be caused for example by the IEA monthly energy report which is to be released today. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open and for economic indicators that are on the agenda today.

Forecast: Crude oil -1.8; Distillates +1.3; Gasoline ±0.0 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil -6.8; Distillates +0.9; Gasoline -2.9 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil -6.7; Distillates ±0.0; Gasoline -3.9 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 11-6)
380cst $344
180cst $470
MGO $636

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 11-6)
380cst $350
180cst $415
MGO $624

Singapore (delivered indications 11-6)

WTI is losing with -$0.42. Singapore paper is up with +$1.00 for 180cst with ±0.00 for 380cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst +$2.25 and 380cst with +$0.75 with MGO contracts Jun gaining with -$0.60 and in Jul with -$0.41. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst +$12.21, 380cst with +$12.97 and MGO up with +$3.11.

380cst $370
180cst $383
MGO $580

Fujairah (delivered indications 11-6)

380cst $358
180cst $386
MGO $731

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $338
MGO 0.1%S: $573