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WTI oil futures traded near a five-month high this morning, as concerns over a supply glut eased following the first crude stock draw in almost six months at the Cushing, Oklahoma, hub last week.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX retreated on Wednesday morning, weighed down by the API's bearish report on US oil inventories and the technical constellation. However, investors avoided to large positions ahead of the release of the DOE's data on Wednesday afternoon. Moreover, the dollar that shed some ground in the course of the day limited the downside. Oil prices thus recovered from earlier losses rising back up to the levels they had started from. In the course of trade, they even tested first resistances. Forex trade then provided a crucial buying signal as the US GDP disappointed expectations. The dollar sharply declined after the release of the data on US growth, making dollar-priced oil cheaper and prompting investors to increase their long-positions in oil. The price increase was accelerated by the DOE's data on oil inventories in the USA. The DOE's report was rather neutral, over all. Still, the surprisingly sharp decline in Cushing crude oil stocks provided some buying cues. Oil futures thus rallied in the evening, with WTI taking the lead. Brent and WTI were pushed to new one-year-highs whereas Gasoil stayed below € 559.54, only hitting a two-month-high. Oil futures kept track of the development of the euro/dollar, which triggered a downward correction later in the evening after the FOMC's meeting.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at € 553.72 on Wednesday, this is +€ 6.76 above Tuesday's settlement. With some 37,200 deals the traded volume (front month) was far below average.

The stochastic indicator changed direction at the WTI chart giving a buying signal. At the Brent and Gasoil charts, the stochastic indicator is only slightly bearish as the lines of the indicator are running in parallels again. The RSI is neither giving any signals at ICE charts, nor at NYMEX charts. When Brent and WTI surpassed the highs they had marked earlier in 2015, more upward potential was generated. Gasoil might find strong resistance at € 559.54 today. If the contract exceeds this mark sustainably, a buying signal would be generated. Since there are but few clear cues, we assess the technical constellation as neutral this morning.

U.S.

Nymex on avarage: Oil futures are trading in a rather narrow range this morning, tending slightly to the upside after yesterday's price rally that was followed by a light downward correction. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for news concerning Yemen and for economic indicators that are on the agenda today.

Forecast: Crude oil +1.5; Distillates +0.8; Gasoline +0.3 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil +1.9; Distillates -0.1; Gasoline +1.7 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +4.2; Distillates +0.7; Gasoline +0.4 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 30-4)
380cst $340
180cst $459
MGO $638

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 30-4)
380cst $350
180cst $430
MGO $640

Singapore (delivered indications 30-4)

WTI is gaining with +$1.85. Singapore paper is bullish with +$11.00 for 180cst with +$10.75 for 380cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst +$10.90 and 380cst with +$11.15 with MGO contracts may losing with -$2.20 and in Jun gaining with +$2.18. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$1.12, 380cst with +$2.26 and MGO with -$0.12.

380cst $353
180cst $375
MGO $576

Fujairah (delivered indications 30-4)

380cst $362
180cst $380
MGO $728

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $353
MGO 0.1%S: $582