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WTI oil futures declined this morning, amid speculation weekly supply data due later in the session will show U.S. crude inventories rose at a faster pace than expected last week.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX started weak on Tuesday morning due to the bearish technical constellation as the RSI at the Brent and the Gasoil chart confirmed WTI's selling signals. The stochastic indicator at ICE didn't trigger any further selling signals in the course of the day. Therefore, market players concentrated again on fundamental factors which were to be interpreted as bullish especially regarding Genscape's expectations concerning decreases in oil stocks in Cushing. Oil prices increased again due to these expectations and the weaker dollar which was put under pressure in the afternoon due to rather disappointing US economic indicators and which made in dollar-negotiated oil futures less expensive for traders outside the United States. WTI breached its resistance at € 53.34 due to the news concerning an incident in the Strait of Hormuz where Iranian patrol boats seized a cargo. Following stop-loss buying orders made the US crude oil sort reach its next resistance near its Monday's highs. Brent and Gasoil also increased considerably. According to initial information, the cargo which was seized should be an American one but as this assumption wasn't confirmed in the course of trading, oil futures eased again. Besides, market players were waiting for the US oil inventory as per API to be released yesterday night. These figures registered increases in US crude oil stocks and in US oil product stockpiles and are to be interpreted as bearish, therefore, even though the decline in US stocks in Cushing which Genscape expected was confirmed. The API's report hardly influenced oil futures so far and futures finally settled consolidating on a high level.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at € 546.96 on Tuesday, this is +€ 1.63 above Monday's settlement. With some 29,600 deals the traded volume (front month) was far below average.

The stochastic indicator stays slightly bearish after having triggered a selling signal at the WTI chart. The stochastic indicator at ICE confirmed those signals after its lines crossed sustainably. Therefore, we consider the technical constellation as bearish. As the RSI's selling signals have already been triggered yesterday, their influence decreases. The technical constellation encourages tests of the downside while the breach of yesterday's lows would cause a considerable increase in selling pressure.

U.S.

Nymex on avarage: Oil futures trade in a very narrow range this morning. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average at this time of the day. Market players are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for news concerning Yemen and for economic indicators that are on the agenda today. They are also focusing on the official US oil inventory data as per DOE which is to be released this afternoon at 4.30 pm.

Forecast: Crude oil +1.5; Distillates +0.8; Gasoline +0.3 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil +4.2; Distillates +0.7; Gasoline +0.4 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 29-4)
380cst $339
180cst $458
MGO $637

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 29-4)
380cst $348
180cst $456
MGO $644

Singapore (delivered indications 29-4)

WTI is gaining with -$0.07. Singapore paper is bullish with +$1.25 for 180cst with +$2.00 for 380cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst +$1.50 and 380cst with +$1.25 with MGO contracts may losing with -$0.20 and in Jun with -$0.22. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$5.92, 380cst with -$6.03 and MGO with -$0.75.

380cst $346
180cst $368
MGO $570

Fujairah (delivered indications 29-4)

380cst $361
180cst $380
MGO $734

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $337
MGO 0.1%S: $563