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WTI oil futures declined this morning, as market participants looked ahead to fresh weekly information on U.S. stockpiles of crude and refined products to gauge the strength of demand in the world’s largest oil consumer.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX started on a high level at the beginning of the week after they reached their fresh year-highs at the end of the last week. The conflict in Yemen stays a supporting factor as well as the bullish US oil inventory forecast of Genscape and the decrease in the number of active US oil rigs. Oil futures didn't find any direction on Monday and were waiting for fresh signals which weren't triggered due to lacking news. Market players weighed the bullish forecasts of a decreasing US oil production which could lead to a reduction in oversupply later in the year against the still bearish oversupply which amounts to between 1.0 and 2.0 mbpd according to some experts. This situation caused some volatility while the news concerning maintenance work at US pipelines in May which were released yesterday afternoon weighed on the price level. US stocks in Cushing could keep increasing because of this maintenance work. Genscape announced yesterday after FS office hours that they count on a decrease in US crude oil stocks of about 0.2 million barrels compared to the previous week. In fact, this is a bullish announcement but as there were already some signs indicating a fresh increase in US stocks in the course of the last week, market players already priced in a increase in US oil stocks. Therefore, no considerable reaction was caused and futures finally settled slightly lower on Monday evening in London and New York.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at € 545.32 on Friday, this is -€ 2.33 below Friday's settlement. With some 30,600 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The RSI at the WTI chart triggered a first selling signal yesterday. This signal was confirmed at ICE this morning after the ICE's indicator also dropped below its 70 line. Even the stochastic indicator at the WTI chart generated a selling signal as its lines already crossed sustainably. If the indicator's lines at the Brent and the Gasoil chart also cross the existing selling signals would be confirmed. We consider the technical constellation as bearish this morning due to the fresh signals of the RSI and the stochastic indicator. The selling pressure is expected to increase again if the stochastic indicator at the Brent and the Gasoil chart also generates selling signals.

U.S.

Nymex on avarage: Oil futures ease this morning due to the bearish technical constellation reacting on the confirmed selling signals of the RSI at ICE. The traded volume at NYMEX is about on average at this time of the day. Investors are waiting for the European financial and forex markets to open, for news concerning Yemen and for the economic indicators that are on the agenda today, as well as for the US oil inventory data as per API.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 28-4)
380cst $340
180cst $457
MGO $629

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 28-4)
380cst $347
180cst $397
MGO $645

Singapore (delivered indications 28-4)

WTI is gaining with -$1.20. Singapore paper is bullish with -$5.90 for 180cst with -$6.90 for 380cst for May, and for Jun 180 cst -$6.15 and 380cst with -$6.50 with MGO contracts may losing with -$0.80 and in Jun with -$0.79. The cargo market is bullish with 180cst +$1.11, 380cst bearish with -$0.07 and MGO bearish with -$0.05.

380cst $351
180cst $373
MGO $575

Fujairah (delivered indications 28-4)

380cst $364
180cst $384
MGO $731

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $340
MGO 0.1%S: $568