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Brent crude oil slipped under € 53.08 a barrel this morning after the West's energy watchdog said a global oil glut was building as U.S. oil production showed no signs of slowing.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX traded in a rather narrow range on Thursday morning before they tested their upward potential due to the slightly bullish technical analysis. The stronger euro which slightly redressed after its price drop of the last few days favoured upward movements as in dollar-negotiated oil futures became less expensive again for European traders. The fundamentally bearish tendency predominated the oil market in the course of the afternoon. After some parts of the Houston Shipping Channel have been reopened in the afternoon they even reopened the complete waterway again. Therefore, the supply of refineries in this region is secured again which had a bearish influence on prices at ICE and NYMEX. Genscape's recent estimation concerning stock development also weighed on oil futures. Stocks in Cushing should have increased within four days (6 to 10 March) by 2.2 million barrels. This news added to the already slightly bearish market situation estimate. Therefore, Thursday morning's buying signals of the stochastic indicator at the Brent and Gasoil chart were pushed into the background. Shell and the "United Steelworker" union achieved a temporary agreement late in the evening after FS office hours. Strikes at US refineries could soon be finished due to this deal. Finally futures settled considerably lower on Thursday evening compared to the previous day.

ICE Gasoil contract for April delivery settled at € 502.65 on Thursday, this is -€ 6.05 below Wednesday's settlement. With some 94,400 deals the traded volume (front month) was far above average.

The stochastic indicator at the Gasoil chart is to be interpreted as neutral again this morning after he triggered a buying signal yesterday while Brent's indicator is still slightly bullish. But this indicator might be blurred due to short covering before the expiry of Brent's front month. This is why its influence isn't to be interpreted as strong as usual. The stochastic indicator at the WTI chart stays neutral as its lines converge. All in all, there are no fresh signals and we consider the technical constellation as neutral this morning. A short-term downtrend has been built however which currently provides direction. Thursday's lows will be decisive marks therefore. If these marks are breached in the course of the day technical selling pressure would increase and the stochastic indicator at the Gasoil chart might trigger a selling signal.

U.S.

Nymex far above average: Oil futures trade in a narrow range at last night's level. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average at this time of the day. Investors are waiting for the European financial and the forex markets to open, for the confirmation that production at US oil refineries will increase again due to the end of the strike at US oil refineries, for news concerning Iranian nuclear negotiations, for the IEA's monthly report and for some economic indicators that are on the agenda today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 13-3)
380cst $315
180cst $461
MGO $636

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 13-3)
380cst $329
180cst $383
MGO $640

Singapore (delivered indications 13-3)

WTI is losing with -$1.09. Singapore paper is up with -$9.25 for 180cst with -$9.35 for 380cst for Mar, and for Apr 180 cst -$8.75 and 380cst with -$9.85 with MGO contracts Mar losing with -$1.96 and in Apr with -$1.94. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$7.89, 380cst with -$7.05 and MGO bearish with -$1.04.

380cst $324
180cst $351
MGO $548

Fujairah (delivered indications 13-3)

380cst $338
180cst $366
MGO $755

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $298
MGO 0.1%S: $520