Thu 9 Oct 2014, 10:34 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude oil rices rebounded in early Asia on Thursday with investors buying off recent sharp dips even as the growth outlook and demand remains uncertain.

After the bearish reports of EIA, IMF and API, released Tuesday, quotations at ICE and NYMEX already slumped early Wednesday morning. Gasoil's strong support at 771.50 USD limited the downside, however. Oil futures thus consolidated sideways in a narrow range after having failed to drop even lower. Brent and WTI were temporarily supported by some short covering but over all, market players stayed on the sidelines tending to increase their short positions even before the release of the DOE's data given the bearish report of the API. The official data on US oil stocks came in bearish, too. That is why the supports that had stayed strong until the release of the data were breached in late-afternoon trade. Still, there was no sharp decline in late trade either. With Brent approaching the psychological support at 90 USD and most of the selling pressure having already been spent by the price slump in the early morning, some traders seized this situation to cover their short positions, the more so as the dollar was weaker. Particularly Brent climbed back to its earlier intra-day high, whereas Gasoil stayed below the 775.00 USD marker.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 769.25 USD on Wednesday, this is 7.75 USD below Tuesday's settlement. With some 52,000 deals the traded volume (front month) was on average.

The lines of the stochastic indicator crossed at the Gasoil and the Brent chart giving a buying signal this morning. The superordinate downtrends remain intact, even though they leave some slack for a light upward correction as well. At the WTI chart, the stochastic indicator remains neutral. The RSI isn't giving any cues - neither at ICE nor at NYMEX charts. The imminent change in Gasoil's front month (tomorrow) might slightly skew the stochastic indicator at the ICE as investors are covering their short positions. Still, the indicator points to a temporary correction which is why we assess the technical constellation as neutral to bullish.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: Oil futures at ICE regained some ground last night as investors covered some of their short positions despite the still bearish market fundamentals. This morning, oil futures haven't showed any clear direction, so far. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of the day. Today, market players will eye the development at stock and forex markets as well as the situation in the geopolitical hotspots. They will also closely watch the economic indicators that are due today.

API: Crude oil +5.1; Distillates -1.1; Gasoline +2.5 million barrels vs previous week.

DOE: Crude oil +5.0; Distillates +0.4; Gasoline +1.2 million barrels vs previous week.

Forecast: Crude oil +1.4; Distillates -1.3; Gasoline -1.1 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 9-10)
380cst $525
180cst $620
MGO $889

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 9-10)
380cst $530
180cst $627
MGO $884

Singapore (delivered indications 9-10)

WTI is losing with -$0.13 Singapore paper is down with -$0.75 for 180cst with +$0.40 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst +$0.35 and 380cst with -$0.15 with MGO contracts Oct gaining with +$0.25 and in Nov with +$0.30. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$10.94, 380cst losing with -$11.74 and MGO losing with -$1.58.

The Singapore fuel oil prices fell another -$10.0 during the Asian Platts window yesterday tracking weaker crude values. The Asian fuel oil crack was extremely soft yesterday led by the strong selling. The delivered bunker premiums were seen around +$8.0 above cargo prices.

380cst $521
180cst $537
MGO $770

Fujairah (delivered indications 9-10)

380cst $546
180cst $602
MGO $970

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The avails of HSFO and LSFO in all of ARA are very tight.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $517
(1.0 %) : $527
MGO 0.1%S: $755

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