Thu 2 Oct 2014, 11:28 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



West Texas Intermediate oil futures traded at the lowest level in more than 17 months this morning, as ample supplies and concerns over weak demand weighed.

After Tuesday's hefty losses at oil markets, investors in London and New York stayed on the sidelines Wednesday morning. As expected, there was some short-covering as some of the traders took profits from the short positions they had raised the day before. Most investors were looking ahead to the release of the DOE's data on US oil inventories, however. The API's data on US oil stocks, released Tuesday night, and the better than expected ADP labor market report slightly buoyed oil prices ahead of the release of the DOE's data Wednesday afternoon. Still, oil futures only gained noticeable momentum when the DOE released its bullish inventories report. The draw in crude oil and product stockpiles caused a price rally in late-afternoon trade that wasn't lasting, however. In late trade (after our submission deadline) Saudi Arabia announced its selling prices for November. The kingdom cut these prices more sharply than expected. This dampened the rise in oil futures, making them erase earlier gains. Particularly crude oil futures declined pulling back below Tuesday's lows. Eventually, crude oil futures settled with new longtime lows.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 808.25 USD on Wednesday, this is +2.75 USD above Tuesday's settlement. With some 49,300 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The stochastic indicator stays bearish at the ICE and the NYMEX charts. The selling signal was already generated Tuesday afternoon which is why it should largely be spent by now. Since the lines of the indicator keep drifting apart, however, the indicator remains bearish. The RSI still is in oversold territory, it doesn't provide any decisive cues, however. The superordinate downtrends at ICE and NYMEX are still intact. Given WTI's break below its short-term uptrend and the still bearish stochastic indicator, the technical constellation is still bearish this morning pointing to a test of the lows hit in the past few days.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: In the early morning, oil futures slightly recovered from last night’s losses. Meanwhile, they have slumped again, however. The lower euro and the decline in European equities weighed on prices. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average for this time of day. Investors will eye the development at stock and forex markets today. They will also keep watching the situation in the geopolitical hotspots and today's economic indicators. The ECB's reunion will be in focus today.

Forecasts: Crude oil +1.5; Distillates ±0.0; Gasoline -0.6 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Crude oil -1.4; Distillates -2.9; Gasoline -1.8 million barrels vs previous week.
API: Crude oil -0.5; Distillates -1.8; Gasoline -2.5 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 2-10)
380cst $555
180cst $664
MGO $924

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 2-10)
380cst $556
180cst $650
MGO $916

Singapore (delivered indications 2-10)

WTI is losing with -$1.93 Singapore paper is down with -$5.75 for 180cst with -$5.50 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst -$5.50 and 380cst with -$5.00 with MGO contracts Oct losing with -$2.13 and in Nov with -$1.98. The cargo market is losing with 180cst -$10.07, 380cst losing with -$8.63 and MGO losing with -$2.22.

The Singapore fuel oil prices lost more than -$8.5 during the Asian Platts window yesterday tracking the massive loss of crude values. The delivered bunker premiums maintained at $10.0-8.0 above cargo prices.

380cst $554
180cst $571
MGO $804

Fujairah (delivered indications 2-10)

380cst $580
180cst $622
MGO $979

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The avails of HSFO in all of ARA are very tight

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $542
(1.0 %) : $548
MGO 0.1%S: $780

MGO  

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