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WTI oil futures traded near a four-week low this morning, as market players assessed demand prospects from the U.S. and the supply outlook in the Middle East.

After the long weekend in the USA, oil futures at ICE and NYMEX showed but refrained moves on Monday morning. Even though investors took some profits and oil futures tested their downside until noon, the decline didn't sustain. Oil prices thus consolidated sideways within Friday's trading range until the late afternoon. On Sunday, Libya's National Oil Corporation (NOC) had lifted the state of Force Majeure on oil deliveries from Es Sider and Ras Lanuf and so, oil deliveries can be booked again. These ports are to have stored about 10 million barrels of crude oil. The installation could thus soon be restarted even though exports are to be but slowly resumed. There weren't many breaking news on Monday but still, with the outlook of a rise in Libyan oil exports the bearish tendency at oil markets prevailed in the evening, the more so as the oil fields in the south of Iraq still don't seem to be affected by the fighting in the north of the country. At night, oil prices thus sharply declined and finished hitting new July-lows.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 896.25 USD on Monday, this is -1.50 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 38,300 deals the traded volume (front month) was below average.

Neither the stochastic indicator, nor the RSI are giving any selling signal at ICE or NYMEX charts. However, they are deeply in oversold territory. The stochastic indicator will only give new bullish signals if its lines cross and the RSI will only turn bullish if it surpasses 30%. The indicators can't provide any bearish cues at the moment. Even though they are pointing to a clearly oversold market, they are still neutral. Oil futures' steep down trend is still intact. If oil prices fall below yesterday's lows, there might be more downward potential. On the short run, the merely technical constellation thus remains largely neutral this morning.

U.S.

Nymex below avarage: Futures at ICE and NYMEX are consolidating near yesterday's lows as important news are still lacking. The traded volume at NYMEX is below average for this time of day. Investors will closely watch stock and forex markets today and keep an eye on the developments in Iraq, Ukraine, Iran and Libya. There is once again only a small number of economic indicators to be released today. Late in the evening, the API is going to release its data on US oil inventories, however.

Forecasts: Crude oil -2.8; Distillates +1.0; Gasoline -0.5 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 8-7)
380cst $600
180cst $677
MGO $983

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 8-7)
380cst $612
180cst $660
MGO $987

Singapore (delivered indications 8-7)

WTI is down with -$0.30. Singapore paper is down with -$4.00 for 180cst and -$4.05 for 380cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst -$3.25 and 380cst with -$3.50 with MGO contracts being bearish in Jul with -$0.36 and in Aug with -$0.41. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$3.32, 380cst with -$3.68 and MGO with -$0.57.

The Singapore fuel oil prices opened the week, losing more than -$3.0 during the Asian Platts window tracking the softer crude prices. Market saw some aggressive selling which pressured the cargo premiums lower moving in negative territory. The delivered bunker premiums were seen app. $5.0 above cargo.

380cst $598
180cst $615
MGO $895

Fujairah (delivered indications 8-7)

380cst $610
180cst $642
MGO $983

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

380cst : $579
(1.0 %) : $619
180cst: $620
MGO 0.1%S: $865