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WTI oil rose this morning, as investors awaited the release of weekly supply data out of the U.S. later in the session to gauge the strength of oil demand from the world’s largest consumer.

After Monday's price decline oil futures consolidated on a lower level on Tuesday morning, frequently testing their upward potential, however. In late-afternoon trading, ICE Gasoil breached its resistance at 932.00 USD triggering a technical rise that pared some of the losses that had been caused by profit taking on Monday. Oil prices were fostered by a better than expected US consumer confidence and the increase in new home sales in the USA. The tensions in Ukraine initially seemed to ease as Vladimir Putin announced that Russia wanted to abandon taking military action in Ukraine. Late in the evening, the ceasefire between Russian separatists and Ukrainian troops was interrupted, however, when a Ukrainian military helicopter was shot down. In late trade, the API released its weekly data on US oil inventories which came in bearish. However, the bullish impact of news on the US government partly lifting the ban on US crude oil exports for two companies predominated the oil market. Particularly WTI received a fillip last night. In all, oil futures at ICE and at NYMEX settled with a rather steady tendency on Tuesday.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 936.00 USD on Tuesday, this is +7.25 USD above Monday's settlement. With some 42,400 deals, the traded volume (front month) was below average.

The stochastic indicator at the ICE and the NYMEX charts is only slightly bearish. By now, its selling signal should have been completely spent. The RSI might sustainably drop below 70% at the ICE charts, however, which would be a fresh selling signal. At the WTI chart, the RSI has already given such a signal and so, we are still assessing the technical constellation as neutral to bearish this morning. The technical selling pressure might increase in the course of the day if the RSI also breaks below 70% at the Brent and the Gasoil charts.

U.S.

Nymex above avarage: After having tended to the upside this morning in Asia, oil futures have meanwhile dropped back below their first supports. The bearish data released by the API last night might still slightly weigh on prices. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average at this time of day. This Tuesday, investors will closely eye stock and forex markets and the development of the situation in Iraq and Ukraine. Market players are also looking ahead to today's economic data and the DOE's report on US oil inventories, due at 4.30 p.m. this afternoon.

Forecasts: Crude oil -1.4; Distillates +1.1; Gasoline +1.5 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Due out tonight
API: Crude oil +4.0; Distillates -0.3; Gasoline +2. million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 25-6)
380cst $616
180cst $683
MGO $991

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 25-6)
380cst $622
180cst $668
MGO $999

Singapore (delivered indications 25-6)

WTI is up with +$0.69. Singapore paper is down with +$0.75 for 180cst and -$0.55 for 380cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst +$0.15 and 380cst with -$0.05 with MGO contracts being bullish in Jul with +$0.33 and in Aug with +$0.26. The cargo market is bearish with 180cst -$5.51, 380cst with -$4.44 and MGO with -$1.22.

The Singapore fuel oil values eased after the recent climb and fell nearly $5.0 during the Asian Platts window yesterday. The lower outright prices attracted more buying interest. The delivered bunker premiums were ranging between $3.5 and $5.5 above cargo prices.

380cst $620
180cst $638
MGO $930

Fujairah (delivered indications 25-6)

380cst $625
180cst $650
MGO $988

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

380cst : $603
(1.0 %) : $633
180cst: $643
MGO 0.1%S: $892