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U.S. oil futures weakened on Tuesday, following the release of softer than expected data on Chinese industrial production and as investors continued to monitor events in Ukraine. Markets in Singapore, Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Laos, Malaysia, Myanmar and Indonesia shut for Vesak Day.

The clear result of the referendum in the regions of Donetzk and Lugansk in Ukraine supported oil markets on Monday morning, even though the slightly bearish technical constellation still prevented a sharp rise in the first half of the day. The breachment of important resistances at the Brent and the Gasoil chart, which automatically triggered more buying orders, sent prices higher later on. Brent surged up to its strong resistance at 108.80 USD and Gasoil up to 907.00 USD. In the afternoon, investors at oil markets took some profits as important news were few and economic indicators were lacking. Moreover, the announcement of the Saudi Oil minister kept gains in check. Noting that Saudi Arabia would compensate for possible export disruptions from Russia in case the EU's sanctions lead to cuts in supplies from the east. Still, quotations stayed in the black as later that evening the separatists in Donetzk informally asked Russia for an integration. At the same time, Russia's prime minister made clear that from June, the Ukraine would have to pay its gas deliveries in advance otherwise deliveries would be suspended. In the course of the evening, WTI kept rising whereas the upward potential at ICE seemed already spent. This was due to the expectations regarding this week's oil inventories data. Investors are most likely expecting a renewed draw in Cushing crude oil stockpiles.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 903.25 dollars on Monday. This was +1.50 USD above Thursday's settlement. With some 77,200 deals, the traded volume was clearly above average.

Neither the stochastic indicator, nor the RSI are currently giving any fresh cues for oil markets. Even though the stochastic indicator is still slightly bearish at the WTI chart this morning, the US crude oil contract is moving in a short-term uptrend. Only if WTI falls below this uptrend might the other contracts have some bearish potential, too. Brent and Gasoil have considerably exceeded their mid-term trends. The stochastic indicator would give a clearly bearish signal at ICE charts, if the lines of the indicator crossed. In all, the technical constellation thus doesn't provide any homogenous signals this morning and so we assess the situation as neutral.

U.S.

Nymex below average: Oil futures are still moving in a relatively narrow range near yesterday's settlement levels. The traded volume at NYMEX is below average at this time of day. Investors are now monitoring stock and forex markets, awaiting news regarding Ukraine and today's economic indicators. Apart from that they are eying the survey and the API's data on US oil inventories.

Forecasts: Crude oil -1.0; Distillates +1.0; Gasoline +0.3 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 13-5)
380cst $607
180cst $690
MGO $977

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 13-5)
380cst $607
180cst $661
MGO $976

Singapore (delivered indications 13-5)

The Singapore fuel oil prices traded lower on Monday, assessed app. - $2/mt during the Asian Platts window.

380cst $590
180cst $606
MGO $915

Fujairah (delivered indications 13-5)

380cst $602
180cst $640
MGO $985

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

380cst : $578
(1.0 %) : $633
180cst: $618
MGO 0.1%S: $888