---

Market in Brief

Crude oil prices fell yesterday with Brent down -$1.13 at $109.51/bbl and WTI - $0.99 at $101.83/bbl, pressured by forecast of rising U.S. crude oil inventories, upcoming refinery maintenance, and further signs of a slowdown in the Chinese economy. The concern over outages in Libya and other locations also seem limiting the downside. Nevertheless, WTI could be easily test the $100/bbl level in the next days. Traders will be watching today’s US New Home sales, Thursday’s jobless claims and Durable goods orders as well as Friday’s Q4 GDP release. This could prove instrumental in determining how the complex finishes this week. Yesterday API stocks showed the same patterns as the last 6 weeks, i.e. a built in Crude of 0,8 mbbl and a smaller draw than expected in Distillates -0,7 mbbl and Gasoline -0,3mbbl. This morning crude is trading slightly higher.

Fueloil Specifics

The NWE bunker fuel oil markets reported mixed demand yesterday with prices following weakening Brent in the afternoon. Delivered 380cst product was assessed app.$2/mt down vs previous close. LSFO avails improved slightly however, remain tight for prompt deliveries with some suppliers not able offer before Thursday. Asian fuel oil market continued in a softer pace and the 380cst cash premium was lower on ample supply. Demand failed to lift the market, unlike on Feb 20 when prices rose after BP took the market by surprise. Arbs remain shut for Apr and the expectations are to see a balanced market going forward. March/Apr got sold down to $1.30 this morning only to find a bid. This morning both markets are trading slightly lower.

Forward Indications

Product	Mar	Apr	May	Q214	Q314	Q414
NYMEX WTI Swap (1st month)	101,97	101,15	99,21	100,19	97,06	94,27
ICE Brent Swap (1st month)	109,29	108,86	108,45	108,46	106,81	105,39
ICE Gasoil Swap (1st month)	922,92	920,42	916,83	917,14	910,46	903,94
3.5% Barges FOB Rtdm	583,25	582,00	581,25	581,25	579,00	574,75
3.5% Cargoes FOB Med	582,00	579,75	578,75	578,75	576,25	572,00
1.0% Cargoes FOB NWE	625,75	616,00	611,50	612,25	606,00	598,25
3% no. 6 USGC WB	91,10	90,94	91,04	90,80	90,39	88,15
380 CST Cargoes FOB S'pore	605,50	602,75	601,50	601,75	599,50	597,50
0.1 % GO Barges FOB Rtdm	924,25	921,25	918,25	918,25	911,25	905,25
Physical Rotterdam 380 CST	588,50	587,25	586,50	586,50	584,25	580,00
Physical Singapore 380 CST	610,75	608,00	606,75	607,00	604,75	602,75

Economic fundamentals this week

Statistic	Importance	Date	Time	Period	Consensus	Last	Actual
Case- Shiller Home Price Index	Medium	25-Feb	9:00 AM	Dec	13.38%	13.70%	13.42%
Consumer Confidence	High	25-Feb	10:00 AM	Feb	80.5	80.7	78.1
New Home Sales	Medium	26-Feb	10:00 AM	Jan	405K	414K	-
Initial Jobless Claims	Medium	27-Feb	8:30 AM	22-feb	335K	336K	-
Durable Goods Orders	High	27-Feb	8:30 AM	Jan	-2.50%	-4.20%	-
Chicago PMI	Medium	28-Feb	8:30 AM	Feb	56.4	59.6	-
GDP (Annualized)	High	28-Feb	8:30 AM	Q4	2.60%	3.20%	-