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Brent crude rose Monday, as oil terminals in Libya failed to reopen following several months of down-time, keeping thousands of barrels per day out of the global marketplace. On Sunday, the leader of one Libyan faction, Ibrahim al-Jathran, said his group wouldn't allow the reopening of terminals in the east of the country. Several terminals have been out of action since July, but an announcement last week intimated an agreement had been reached to reopen them. Without the expected Libyan barrels, the price increased.Brent crude for January delivery was up $1.12, or 1.03%, to $109.44 a barrel on ICE Futures Europe. U.S. crude-oil futures were up 47 cents a barrel at $97.07 on the New York Mercantile Exchange. ICE Gasoil contract for January delivery settled at 917.75 USD on Friday. This was -7.75 USD below Thursday's settlement. With some 58,700 deals, the traded volume was on average.

On Friday morning, traders at oil markets tended to consolidate their riskier positions ahead of the weekend waiting for new cues. Given the bearish market fundamentals Brent successively retreated in the course of the day, however, chiefly as investors expected that oil exports from Libya's export terminals in the east of the country would be resumed over the weekend. The Libyan government and militia had come to terms last week over how oil revenues should be allocated in the future. WTI retreated mainly because of its rather bearish technical constellation after the RSI dropped below 70% giving a selling signal. The fact that Iranian negotiators left the talks with the 5+1 powers in Vienna after the USA had blacklisted some enterprises and private persons who had offended the sanctions but marginally buoyed oil futures. Eventually, the bearish factors prevailed, with WTI having lost more ground then the other contracts.

The stochastic indicator has already crossed at the Brent chart giving a buying signal this morning. At the Gasoil chart, the indicator doesn't confirm this buying signal yet. The RSI doesn't either, see also technical analysis. The selling pressure for WTI ebbed this morning as the lines of the stochastic indicator have not continued to diverge. As to Brent, a gap showed at the chart at the opening of the session on Monday. This gap hasn't been closed yet which indicates a decline. Consequently, we assess the technical situation as neutral thsi morning. If the buying signal of the stochastic indicator at the Brent chart is confirmed by the RSI or by the stochastic indicator at the Gasoil chart, the technical constellation might turn slightly bullish in the course of the day.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: The continuing blockades at Libyan oil export terminals have sent prices higher at the beginning of trading earlier this morning. Meanwhile, the weaker than expected Chinese purchasing manager index for the manufacturing sector has prompted investors to take some profits, however. Still, in all, futures remain steadier. The traded NYMEX volume is slightly below average for this time of day. Trader are now eying to the development at European stock and forex markets in order to receive new cues. Moreover, they will keep an eye on the economic indicators due today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 10-12)
380cst $597
180cst $670
MGO $99

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 10-12)
380cst $617
180cst $652
MGO $991

Singapore

WTI is bearish with -$0.99. Singapore paper is gaining with +$5.75 for 180cst and +$6.00 for 380cst for Dec, and for Jan 180 cst +$5.25 and 380cst +$4.75 with MGO contracts Dec +$0.37 and Jan +$0.27. The cargo market is bearish with 180 cst -$5.26, 380cst -$2.52 and MGO -$1.10.

Friday’s trade firmed up Spore 380CF paper from a week ago reflected on time spreads especially j/f and f/m. Fuel oil flat price paper as well saw strong note despite unchanged crude levels and this morning in Asia swap indication value Bal Dec 380CF 607.75/mt up +5.25/mt from Fridays assessment. In the physical market as pricing session moved closer to January, bids and offers were seen firmer, in line with the direction of the derivatives market after some divergence on Thursday. Some support could have been drawn from slightly lower arbitrage cargoes slated for January arrival into Singapore. Current estimates stood at 3.74 million tones, about 7.2 percent lower than the count for December arrival volumes into Singapore, which are estimated at 4.03 million tones, Reuters oil analytics data showed. Singapore marine fuel sales declined in November for the first time since August, in line with fewer vessel arrivals for bunker refueling as compared with October, according to data from the Maritime and Port Authority of Singapore.

380cst $607
180cst $614
MGO $930

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Still a lot of lsfo problems in ARA. No loading prospects in Antwerp. At the moment suppliers are only offering from end of this week onwards.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $582
(1.0 %) : $625
180cst: $614
MGO 0.1%S: $ 903