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Fuel oil trend

Rotterdam: $ 1 lower. Singapore: $ 1 lower. US Gulf: $ 2 lower.

Waiting on Wednesday (Brent: $108.2)

No important figures are published today, but markets will monitor closely what happens on Wednesday. Current chairman of the FED, Ben Bernanke, will be speaking, and the latest statement from the FED-members (FOMC) will be published. Any hints as to when the much debated QE might end would directly affect the oil prices as traders adjust portfolios. However; we do not see an astonomical impact as much uncertainty has already been priced in.

Wednesday will bring further important oil price information; The nuclear talks between Iran and the U.S. is to take place, and the understatement of the year is that Israel is not too happy with the current outlook. Israeli warnings that they could conduct a unilateral military strik against Iran, hit the news – again. An action Israel has repeated several times during the talks on nuclear negotiations. We see a military strike as a low probability, but high impact event.

A 330,000 bpd Chevron refinery in Mississippi has ceased operations due to fires. It should have limited impact on prices for now.

Recommendation

Last week's closing price and bullish momentum has increased the likelyhood of a further upwards attempt in the coming days. Resistance is cleared at the 108-ish level and prices seem to be aiming at 110-112 for the next stop. Any setbacks look to be good buying opportunities for consumers should it suit your budget.