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Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX have slightly declined in the first hours of European trading. While G.Oil has already breached its first support, Brent and WTI stayed within their technical trading range. The oil market has received a slightly bearish signal from the Chinese consumer price index, which stoked fears that China’s central bank might renounce more expensive measures which could curb the country’s economy and thus oil demand. In addition, technical selling signals at ICE charts also slightly pressure prices at the moment. WTI’s fluctuations have been rather negligible.

Along with China’s trading balance, current oil import figures were also released. These showed that the country imported an average of 5.6 mbpd of crude in the first half of 2013. This is a drop by 1.4% on-the-year. In June, crude imports may have increased by 2.1% to 5.36 mbpd year on year, but compared to May, imports declined by around 7.4%.

Given oil’s surge during the past days, oil markets in London and New York started rather calm Tuesday. Crude futures WTI and Brent were trading within their technical range until evening. Merely G.Oil displayed more volatility. But this was largely due to the fact that front month July expires tomorrow. While the revision of the U.S.’s growth forecast and global economic growth was slightly weighing on oil markets in the course of the day, traders were still waiting for the EIA’s monthly report. Outside our office hours, oil prices soared and breached several resistances as the EIA had slightly revised up its prognosis for U.S. and global oil consumption. In contrast, the institute had lowered its OPEC production outlook for 2013 and 2014. Together with the bullish API inventory data released at 10.30 p.m., oil futures climbed to new highs in the late evening and settled clearly strengthened, see tickcharts. Currently, oil futures are showing increased volatility as along with bullish signals by the EIA and API, there have been also fresh bearish indicators: China’s foreign trade balance clearly decreased in June and Libya has reopened its oil export terminal Es Sider by now.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 909.25 USD on Tuesday. This was -4.00 USD compared to Monday's settlement. With some 35,900 deals the traded volume was below average.

OPEC: after our office hours yesterday night, Omar Shakmak, deputy oil minister of Libya, announced that activities at the country’s biggest oil export terminal Es Sider (with a capacity of 300,000 barrel/day) had been resumed on Tuesday. At the same time, the smaller port in Ras Lanuf had also re-opened. These lading ports had been shut down last week due to protests and strikes of oil workers. About one quarter of Libya’s entire oil exports are handled at the Es Sider terminal. Last year, these amounted on average to 1.2 mbpd.

The Stochastic remains bearish after its both lines crossed at the G.Oil chart yesterday. However, the indicators still is neutral for Brent and WTI. Moreover, the overbought market situation favours profit-taking and thus, the technical constellation still is to be considered slightly bearish. But in view of the many important indicators which are to be released today and tomorrow, oil markets are expected to be quite volatile and traders will focus on fundamentals.

U.S.

Nymex bullish: After rising up in late trading yesterday and in view of disappointing economic data out of China this morning, oil futures slightly slipped in Asian trading but are now gaining ground again. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average for this time of day. Market players are now looking ahead to the performance of European markets, for OPEC’s monthly report, the DoE data and the FOMC minutes.

API: Crude oil -9,0 ; distillates +2,8 ; gasoline -3,5 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: Due out tonight.
Survey: Crude oil -3.1; distillates +1.0; gasoline +1.0 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 09-07 )
380cst $588
180cst $665
MGO $988

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 09-07)
380cst $591
180cst $623
MGO $989

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bouncing up firmly with +$1.65. The paper market is slowing, but not turning yet with Jul 180cst -$1.75 and for 380cst -$1.25, and Aug contracts with 180cst -$1.25, 380st -$0.95. The cargo market is reacting to the recent losses with 180cst -$2.76, and 380cst -$3.72 and MGO -$0.42.

The Singapore fuel oil market lost between -$4.0 to -$2.5 during the Asian Platts window yesterday. Market demand was said to be slow amidst an ample supply situation depressing current outright prices. The delivered bunker premiums were ranging between +$4.0 to +$5.5 above cargo prices. This morning markets are trading slightly higher.

380cst $593
180cst $601
MGO $910

Fujairah (delivered indications 10-07)

380cst $599
180cst $677
MGO $1050

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $596
(1.0 %) :$608
180cst: $610
(1.0 %):$ 633
MGO 0.1%S: $ 892