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The dollar rose but equity markets stuck within tight ranges on Tuesday as uncertainty over the future of the U.S. monetary stimulus program kept investors on edge ahead of the Federal Reserve's policy meeting. Brent crude eased towards $105 a barrel, falling from an 11-week high, as fears that the tensions in Syria could spark conflict in more oil-rich parts of the region provided a prop for the otherwise Fed-focused market.

Short summary of Monday's session Just as on Friday, oil futures traded with a bearish tendency, testing their first supports early on at both ICE and NYMEX. These proved to be strong, however, and thus provided some upward momentum. Advancing European stocks and speculations over a military intervention of the USA in Syria helped oil prices to advance. The election outcome in Iran hardly made an impact at the oil market. But adding to oil’s support was also the production stop at the Oseberg oil field in the North Sea. Consequently, technical buying orders accelerated the upturn as the first resistance could be sustainably breached. After reaching new highs, Brent’s strong resistance at 106.65 USD caused oil futures to slip back into its trading range. Despite the better-than-expected U.S. indicators and the relatively positive sentiment at U.S. stock markets, oil futures in New York could not recover again and those at ICE closed with slight losses. Besides, the dollar’s late drop against the euro also kept investors to engage in long positions again. Even WTI, which had climbed to a nine-month high was not able to hold its gains and settled near its four-month high.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 894.00 USD on Monday. This was 3.25 USD below Friday's settlement. With some 49,400 deals, the traded volume was slightly below average.

The Stochastic’s lines have converged in the overbought zone at both ICE and NYMEX charts. If these lines crossed, the indicator would give of a selling signal. The RSI is still moving above the 70%-line at the WTI as well as at the G.Oil chart and also failed to sustainably breach this line at the Brent chart. Brent’s and WTI’s upper limitations at 106.65 USD and 98.80 USD of their short-term uptrend proved to be strong on Monday. Thus, we assume a rather neutral stance this morning regarding the technical constellation.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: Oil futures have been moving sideways in their technical trading range in Asia this morning. Market players do not want to place more long positions ahead of the Fed president Ben Bernanke’s comments on the state of the U.S. economy and the central bank’s decision regarding its bond buying programme. The market may be supported today by the tense situation in Syria. Trade volume at NYMEX is slightly below average for this time of day. Investors are now waiting for the European markets to open, for fresh signals from forex trading as well as for a few economic indicators to be released in Europe and the USA in the course of the day.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 17-06 )
380cst $635
180cst
MGO $1020

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 17-06)
380cst $602
180cst $663
MGO $977

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

The Singapore fuel oil markets were up ranging +$0.5 to +$5.0 during the Asian Platts window yesterday. Market supply looks ample while the recent huge trading of physical cargoes will potentially impede bunker barges activities. This may cause short term avails issues. The delivered bunker premiums were seen app. $5.5 above cargoes prices yesterday. This morning both markets are trading slightly lower.

380cst $609
180cst $617
MGO $890

Fujairah (delivered indications 18-06)

380cst $617
180cst $694
MGO $1030

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $590
(1.0 %) :$ 625
180cst: $ 620
(1.0 %):$ 655
MGO 0.1%S: $ 888