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Crude oil was ticking higher this morning as traders await cues from the inflation report from the U.S. Labor Department due out later today. Yesterday, oil settled marginally higher as the dollar weakened against a basket of currencies despite some upbeat jobless claims data out of the U.S. This morning, the U.S. dollar moved back near a weekly low versus the euro and sterling.

Early trading on Thursday had been rather calm and oil futures at ICE and NYMEX only started to edge higher at the opening of the European session, supported by the positive sentiment at the stock market. While ICE Brent managed to breach its first resistance on several attempts, triggering technical buying orders, G.Oil and WTI failed to overcome this hurdle and fell back to their first support. Brent’s good performance can be largely attributed to the fact that the front month was about to expire yesterday evening. Market players liquidated speculative short positions prior to the expiration of the Brent contract for April delivery. This drove Brent up to its resistance at 109.90 USD but further gains were limited there. At the opening of U.S. floor trade, the other futures were able to recover from their lows. While G.Oil held steady in its trading range, WTI reached new highs. The slumping dollar vs. the euro and the surging U.S. stock markets supported the oil market after the better-than–expected U.S. unemployment figures had been released. Given the recent positive indicators regarding the U.S. economy, the safe haven currency considerably lost ground, which makes dollar-denominated oil futures cheaper for holders of other currencies. Crude futures in London and New York closed near their day’s lows while ICE G.Oil edged slightly lower at the close of trade. Consequently, the spread between Brent and WTI further narrowed.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 909.75 USD on Thursday. This was 2.75 USD below Wednesday's settlement. With some 69,300 USD deals, the traded volume was above average.

The stochastic oscillator has turned bullish again as its lines are converging at the WTI and the G.Oil chart. If its lines crossed, a buying signal would be triggered. At the Brent chart for its May contract, the Stochastic as well as the RSI have already given off a buying signal. The RSI had already signalled to buy G.Oil when it breached the 30%-line in the middle of the week. Thus, G.Oil is up. At the WTI chart, however, the indicators point to an overbought market situation, which favours a downward correction. But the short-term uptrend still remains intact with enough scope to trade up as well as down. Thus, we consider the technical analysis rather neutral but with a slightly bullish tendency.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: Oil prices in London and New York started hardly changed this morning, trading in a narrow range with a slightly stronger tendency. Investors will focus on the USA today where a series of economic data is going to be released. They hope that the data will confirm that economic recovery is gaining traction in the world’s biggest economy. The traded volume at NYMEX is far above average for this time of day. Market participants are waiting for the European markets to open, for signals from forex trading as well as for the upcoming economic data.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 15-03)
380cst $615
180cst $655
MGO $1006

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 15-03)
380cst $616
180cst $663
MGO $1005

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI is going upwards, with +$0.05. Paper for Mar is going downwards with 180cst -4.20 and for 380cst -$2.50, and Apr contracts with 180cst -$2.50, 380st -$3.00. The cargo market is following on 180cst -$2.86, and 380cst dropped -$0.71 and MGO +$0.36.

The Singapore fuel oil market fell following weaker crude in the morning hours; down between -$4.0 to -$2.5. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory saw a draw of -1.4 mbbl to 18.6mbbl which is recent low. The delivered bunker premiums were seen between $6.5 to $8.0 above cargo prices. This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $633
180 cst $644
MGO $919

Fujairah (delivered indications 15-03)

380cst $643
180cst $690
MGO $1025

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

HSFO and LSFO prompt deliveries slightly improved for some suppliers at the port of Rotterdam. However, In Antwerp barge congestions still reported at some loading terminals.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 607
(1.0 %) :$ 623
180cst: $ 634
(1.0 %):$ 655
MGO 0.1%S: $ 895