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Oil stayed below $109 a barrel on Thursday, weighed by a subdued outlook for demand growth in top consumers the United States and China, while a firm dollar added pressure on prices. Two of the three most closely watched oil forecasters - the International Energy Agency and U.S. government's Energy Information Administration - lowered global oil demand growth forecasts this week. The third, OPEC, flagged downside risks to the outlook. Brent crude gained 36 cents to $108.88 a barrel by 1017 GMT. The global benchmark fell for the last four sessions. U.S. oil gained 17 cents to $92.69, after sliding to $92.18.

Market players at ICE and NYMEX had at first adopted a waiting attitude Wednesday morning and were cautious to engage into either direction. Towards noon, oil prices, together with the euro, started to trade down. The IEA’s monthly oil report weighed on the market at this point since the agency had revised down its forecast on global oil demand growth and at the same time, raised their global production outlook. Until the DoE report was released, trading remained rather calm. The figures on U.S. oil inventories then came out quite mixed but the bullish draw in gasoline stocks and the bearish build in crude cancelled each other out to some extent. However, the DoE data loosened traders reserved attitude and thus, the bearish influence of the monthly oil reports and the rising dollar, which benefited from the surprisingly higher U.S. retail sales, dominated the oil market in the late afternoon. Oil futures breached several supports, resulting in increased selling pressure as automatic stop-loss orders were triggered. Brent’s and WTI’s downside was only limited around 108.00 USD and 92.00 USD, respectively. Oil futures at ICE marked this year’s lows in this phase while WTI held relatively steady as investors liquidated their spread bets.

ICE Gasoil contract for March delivery settled at 912.50 USD on Wednesday. This was 11.50 USD below Tuesday's settlement. With some 107,800 deals the traded volume was far above average.

The Stochastic at ICE is only slightly bearish still as its lines are converging again. At the WTI chart, however, a selling signal was triggered, but the short-term uptrend still remains intact. The Stochastic’s selling signal was largely processed in yesterday’s downward reaction and thus, the bearish influence slightly decreases. As WTI takes a special position at the moment we do not want to overrate the Stochastic’s selling signal and see the technical analysis only slightly bearish. Technical selling pressure could increase if ICE futures fell below yesterday’s lows and WTI breaks out of its uptrend channel.

U.S.

Nymex neutral: Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX are rangebound this morning, not displaying any tendency in either direction. They are consolidating above yesterday’s highs. The traded volume at NYMEX is above average for this time of day. Investors are now eying the performance of European markets, new cues from forex trading and the economic data to be released today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 14-03)
380cst $610
180cst $651
MGO $1003

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 14-03)
380cst $610
180cst $657
MGO $1002

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

WTI is going upwards, with +$0.05. Paper for Mar is going downwards with 180cst -4.20 and for 380cst -$2.50, and Apr contracts with 180cst -$2.50, 380st -$3.00. The cargo market is following on 180cst -$2.86, and 380cst dropped -$0.71 and MGO +$0.36.

The Singapore fuel oil market fell between -$3.00 to -$0.50 during the Platts window yesterday. The fundamentals are looking firm with healthy buying interest which lifted the cargo premium to more than $2.50. The delivered bunker premiums were also firming, seen between $6.0 to $8.5 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost up to $7/mt at the front of the forward curve. Backend was slightly stronger, with cal2014 papers posting app.$4.5/mt losses. This morning the markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $628
180 cst $637
MGO $921

Fujairah (delivered indications 14-03)

380cst $638
180cst $685
MGO $1020

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

HSFO and LSFO prompt deliveries slightly improved for some suppliers at the port of Rotterdam. However, In Antwerp barge congestions still reported at some loading terminals.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 600
(1.0 %) :$ 620
180cst: $ 630
(1.0 %):$ 650
MGO 0.1%S: $ 990