Fri 14 Dec 2012, 11:35 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Brent crude rose toward $109 a barrel on Friday on a brighter outlook for China's economy, the world's second-largest oil consumer, but worries about the impact of a possible U.S. fiscal crisis capped price gains. Brent crude is set to eke out its first weekly gain this month. The January contract, which expires later on Friday, rose 94 cents to $108.85 a barrel by 1008 GMT. U.S. crude for January delivery was up 92 cents at $86.81 and on track for its fifth weekly gain in six.

Oil futures traded with a bearish tendency Wednesday morning and along with the still soft euro, hit first supports at ICE and NYMEX in early morning trading. After supports proved to be strong, prices at ICE rose to yesterday's highs towards noon, supported by a bullish technical view and the euphoria about the Fed's decision on further monetary measures. The bearish DOE data, which indicated an even more comfortable supply situation in the USA, exerted downward pressure on prices. The better than expected U.S. job market data raised WTI to its yesterday highs while it had little impact on prices at ICE. Brent even fell to its second support but bounced back thanks to automatically triggered buying orders. During NYMEX floor trading, concerns about U.S. politicians not coming to an agreement, outweigh the joy about Fed's new expansive measures and as a result, futures in London and New York breached several supports but traded up again in late trading. The release of the Chinese HSBC PMI forecast, anticipating a 14-month high in December lifted oil priced this morning.

ICE Gasoil contract for January delivery settled at 920.50 dollars on Thursday. This was 2.50 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 62,000 deals the traded volume was below average.

The stochastic remains bullish for G.Oil at ICE and futures at NYMEX but not oversold anymore. Brent lines are converging again. The RSI is already moving out of the oversold range and is rather neutral this morning see. Since buying signals date back a couple of days, the technical view is neutral and indicates that prices are consolidating sideways with a bullish tendency.

U.S.

Nymex Access neutral: Concerns about U.S. budget talks are rekindling and positive Chinese HSBC PMI and U.S economic data were released. The Fed decided on extending expansive measures for quantitave easing next year by doubling bond purchases. As expected, OPEC left the output ceiling unchanged but demands to abdie to the quota. DOE and API oil inventories were bearish. Surprisingly, the IEA monthly report was slightly bullish while the monthly EIA and OPEC report were rather bearish. North Sea crude embarkment is to increase in January. Mild winter in the USA. Riots in Egypt evoke memories of the Arab spring. Iran insists on uranium enrichment. Still tensions in the Middle East (Iran and Syria). Global oil supply still sufficient.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 13-12)
380cst $651
180cst $688
MGO $1041

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 12-12)
380cst $618
180cst $661
MGO $993

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude with WTI -$0.39 Singapore paper is stable with +$0.20 for 180cst and -$0.20 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec,180 cst -$2.70 and 380cst -$2.25. With MGO contracts Nov -$0.75 and Dec -$0.78. The cargo market is neutral with 180 cst +$0.87 380cst -$0.53 and MGO +$0.75.

The Singapore markets were flat during the morning Platts window yesterday despite previous stronger crude values. The Asian fuel oil crack suffered a big drop as European market saw strong selling interest. The delivered bunker premiums softened to around $2.0 to $4.0 above cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel oil swaps lost $2.5-3.0/mt along the curve for Singapore papers. This morning the markets are trading slightly lower.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $600
180 cst $610
MDO $910

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

LSFO loadings are taking up to 4 days in Antwerp. HSFO there are no spot-avails. Beside the existing contracts of the suppliers, there are no load possibilities in Antwerp or Flushing. Both influences the Rotterdam hub with regards to the loading capacity. A lot of waitingtime is reported in some of the refineries or storages. Those where waitingtime is taken to the minimum, high premiums are noted. Therefore, for prompt enquiries, a bigger premium is to be expected.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 570
(1.0 %) :$ 610
180cst: $ 600
(1.0 %):$ 640
MGO 0.1%S: $ 920

MGO  

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