Wed 5 Dec 2012, 14:22 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude futures rose slightly in London trade Wednesday, as oil continued to move in tandem with broader risk sentiment. Gains were muted, however, ahead of a raft of economic data and the closely-watched U.S. oil stocks data. At 1015 GMT, the front-month January Brent contract on London's ICE futures exchange is up 40 cents at $110.24 a barrel. The front-month January light, sweet crude contract on the New York Mercantile Exchange is trading 24 cents higher at $88.74 a barrel.

After consolidating in a tight range in electronic morning trading oil prices continued to decline at noon in a quiet market without any volume. The disappointing ISM manufacturing index in the USA still weighed, investors apprehending that the string of US employment data that are going to be released in the second half of the week will come out below expectations as well. The stand-off in the U.S. budget talks also gives investors reason to worry. With less than a month left to confront the budget cuts and tax increases that will begin taking effect in January, republicans and democrats could not yet agree on a common solution. Should the U.S. tumble over the "fiscal cliff" analysts expect that the resulting decline in oil demand could amount to as much as 0.6 million bpd. These bearish fundamentals tempted traders to take profit yesterday despite a rise in the euro, the technical constellation excerting additionnal pressure. After the Brent and the WTI had failed to breach their key resistance lines for good on Monday (112,20 dollars Brent, 90,00 dollars WTI), a technical downward correction was triggered that was accelerated by the breach of several support lines in early trading on Tuesday. The Stochastic oscillator's selling signal made for increased selling pressure and so oil prices settled considerably lower in London and New York. The WTI's losses being less important the spread between the two benchmark crudes lowered to around 21,20 dollars.

ICE Gasoil contract for December delivery settled at 934.00 dollars on Tuesday. This was 15.75 dollars below Monday's settlement. With some 41,700 deals the traded volume was below average.

The Stochastic oscillator is bearish at all charts this morning after having given a selling signal yesterday. But tuesday's price collapse has wiped out some of oil's downside which should trigger a modest upward correction with additional support from a strong euro before prices can decline any further. Despite the Stochastic's selling signals technical analysts are not too bearish this morning as the DoE report and economic indicators will dominate investors' sentiment today.

U.S.

Nymex Access bearish: Oil prices are edging higher in East-Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning in a technical reaction to Tuesday's losses and with additional support of a strong euro and the good performance of Asian equities. The traded volume is little below average. Market players eye the performance of forex markets today as well as a string of important indicators from Europe and the U.S. and the DoE oil inventory report in the afternoon.

API: Crude oil -2.2; distillates +1.1; gasoline +5.7 million barrels vs previous week.
DOE: due out tonight.
Forecast: Crude oil -0.4; distillates +1.2; gasoline +2.2 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 04-12)
380cst $607
180cst $670
MGO $1024

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 04-12)
380cst $638
180cst $668
MGO $1029

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

The Singapore markets dipped app. $1.0 during the morning window yesterday. The delivered bunker premiums softened to around $2.5 above cargo prices. The demand for bunkers was surprisingly firm yesterday as crude softened after the window. Bunker fuel oil swaps posted $3.00-4.00 losses along the curve for Singapore papers. This morning the markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $606
180 cst $615
MDO $940

Fujairah (delivered indications 05-12)

380cst $610
180cst $635
MGO $1020

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Rotterdam continued with slow demand today which is not a bad thing with some difficulties with bunker deliveries due to ongoing delays some loading installations, Antwerp continued to run low of high sulfur fuel oil due to shortages of blending components, sources said. Avails in Rotterdam are not much better either in terms of HSFO availability, some are not quoting until December 7th.

Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 590
(1.0 %) :$ 616
180cst: $ 620
(1.0 %):$ 646
MGO 0.1%S: $ 930

BP   MGO  

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