DNV has predicted that clean hydrogen demand will rise 100-fold from current levels by 2060, with total hydrogen volumes expected to grow by 170%.

The forecast appears in DNV’s ‘Energy Transition Outlook: Hydrogen to 2060’ report. The classification society expects cumulative investment in hydrogen to reach $3.2tn over the period.

China is projected to lead the expansion, accounting for 35% of new hydrogen production and use through to 2060.

DNV identifies emerging sectors as the strongest sources of clean hydrogen demand, with steelmaking and aviation each accounting for 18% of use by 2060 and maritime at 15%.

Established uses in fertiliser and methanol production are also set to remain significant, with each area accounting for about 13% as supply chains decarbonise.

The outlook has been revised down by 35% compared with DNV’s 2022 hydrogen forecast. The organisation attributed the lower mid-century projection mainly to insufficient policy support, which has prevented early ambition from turning into large-scale projects.

DNV also pointed to continued progress in electrification technologies, reducing hydrogen’s expected role in some sectors that had previously been seen as likely users.

Ditlev Engel, chief executive officer of energy systems at DNV, said: “The hydrogen industry is poised for growth, but it is a fragile stance. Hydrogen completes the most difficult aspects of the decarbonization drive that so many nations have committed to. In driving fossil dependency out of critical sectors, hydrogen also contributes meaningfully to energy security. It is time for policymakers to study carefully the practical progress that has been made and to act decisively.”

China’s manufacturing advantage

DNV expects Europe and China to account for half of the new renewable electrolysis-based capacity added by 2030.

China holds 60% of global electrolyser manufacturing capacity. The report forecasts that the country will combine this with its solar and wind base to become the leading renewable hydrogen producer.

DNV expects 10 million tonnes per year of renewable electrolysis-based capacity to be added by 2030, on top of 1.5 million tonnes per year installed in 2025.

Energy security to shape investment

The report identifies energy security as a growing driver for hydrogen investment and policy, as energy-importing governments seek to reduce exposure to volatile fossil fuel markets and protect critical industries.

DNV also expects the current geopolitical situation to speed up final decisions on hydrogen projects.

Instability in the Middle East is likely to increase the use of coal-based hydrogen for ammonia and fertiliser production in the medium term, as governments seek to maintain food security, the report noted.

Safety and verification challenges

DNV warned that growth will depend on closing a safety-confidence gap and credibly documenting emissions reductions.

The organisation noted that pilot projects are informing industrial-scale design and procedures, but scaling will require careful work on both cost and safety assumptions.

Magnus Killingland, global segment lead hydrogen at DNV, said: “Going forward, it is about fine-tuning the regulations, implementing these in legislation, and verifying safety concepts, documenting technical performance, and certifying emission reductions. That is how renewable and low carbon hydrogen can make a difference for hard-to-electrify sectors.”

DNV stated that stronger standardisation and whole-system approaches to safety, verification and certification will be needed to build trust and attract investment.

The report is available by clicking here.