Wed 10 Oct 2012, 12:20 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude prices fell Wednesday, as an overnight rally fuelled by escalating Middle East tensions fizzled under the weight on a gloomy global economic outlook and a stronger U.S. dollar. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at $92.04 a barrel at 0605 GMT, down $0.35 in the Globex electronic session. November Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange fell $0.30 to $114.20 a barrel. Oil prices and energy stocks were about the only bright points in markets Tuesday, after the International Monetary Fund warned that the probability of a global economic slowdown is "alarmingly high."

Oil prices traded in a narrow lateral range in electronic morning trading on Tuesday. The Brent hit both its first support at 112,00 dollars and its short-term resistance at 112,80 dollars at this time of the day but failed to breach either of them. Despite a slump in the euro the bullish market sentiment prevailed and initiated a price rally in the afternoon. The armed conflict at the Syrian/Turkish border has rekindled worries of a cross-border shooting involving other countries in the region which could have a negative effect on oil exports. Apart from that news that the loadings of four major North Sea crude oil grades in November will fall by about 91,000 barrels a day overruled yesterday's bearish news: the IMF's warning of a worldwide recession and Saudia Arabia's renewed confirmation to do everything necessary to bring down the price for a barrel of Brent to 100,00 dollars. After key resistance lines at 1.000,00 dollars (G.Oil), 113,40 dollars (Brent) and 90,60 dollars (WTI) were breached later in the session, technically driven buying orders catapulted oil prices to fresh highs in London and New York.

News: Iran has advanced its nuclear program to where it will be able to produce weapons-grade fuel in two to four months. The new assessments feed growing alarm in the U.S., Europe and Israel efforts to deny Tehran a nuclear-weapons capability. The Institute for Science and International Security concluded in a report this week that Iran could produce enough highly enriched uranium for one atomic bomb in two to four months using its largest uranium-enrichment facility near the city of Natanz. ISIS bases its conclusions almost solely on information released by the International Atomic Energy Agency. The IAEA said in its most recent report in August that Tehran had doubled its capacity to produce 20% enriched uranium at its underground facility near the holy city of Qom. Tehran could combine its stockpiles of low-enriched and higher-enriched uranium to make a dash for weapons-grade fuel, which is around 90% purity. The Iranians could do that by synchronizing the enrichment of these two grades of uranium and cutting out some intermediary steps that slow the process. Iran has a stockpile 91.4 kilograms of uranium enriched to 20% purity, according to the IAEA. An additional 25 kilograms of the material is committed for conversion into fuel rods for Tehran's research reactor.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 1.002,00 dollars on Tuesday. This was 8.50 dollars above Monday's settlement. With some 39,900 deals the traded volume was well below average, the contract expiring Thursday.

The Stochastic oscillator at the ICE and NYMEX charts is bullish at the overbought level but its two lines are converging. This reduces the indicator's bullish impact but the breaching of key resistance lines on Tuesday has created more upside. Yesterday's rally could tempt traders to take some profit in the morning, so technical analysts who regard the market therefore still as neutral as long as the prices stay below Tuesday's highs. Beyond these more technical buying orders are seen.

U.S.

Nymex access bearish : Oil prices lost ground in Asian trading but are trading a bit higher in electronic European trade despite a decline in U.S. and Asian equities and a slump in the euro. The traded volume is above average. Market players eye the performance of stock and forex markets today as well as the API's inventory report tonight. The couple of indicators on the agenda are of minor importance.

Survey of US Petroleum inventories due out tonight at 22:30(API) and Thursday at 16:30(DOE)
Crude oil +1.0; distillates -0.4; gasoline -0.1 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 9-10)

380cst $631
180cst $674
MGO $1050

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 9-10)

380cst $645
180cst $680
MGO $1070

Singapore (correct as per 14:30hrs LT-delivered indications)

The Singapore fuel oil markets were around parity ranging from -$0.50 to +$0.50 yesterday during the morning Platts window. The Asian Fuel Oil cracks came off significantly yesterday as slower demand is weighing on ample supply in the market. The delivered bunker premiums were around $8.0 above cargo prices. Bunker fuel oil swaps gained up to $8.5/mt at the front of the forward curve the Singapore papers. Backend was around one dollar weaker. This morning the market is trading higher.

380 cst $650
180 cst $665
MGO $970

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA is well supplied in general, but tight HSFO avails and long waiting times at refineries for LSFO, causes some suppliers not to offer to prompt enquiries.

MGO  

Andrés Galnares and Gorka Hermoso, H2SITE. H2SITE closes Series B round above €42m to scale hydrogen membrane technology  

Fresh capital secured as firm targets large-scale industrial deployment and expansion into Asian markets.

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries (MHI) logo. MHI study points to cost reduction potential in India-to-Singapore green ammonia value chain  

Mitsubishi Heavy Industries analysis finds value chain optimisation could cut green ammonia costs.

YM Wayfinder naming ceremony. Yang Ming names third LNG dual-fuel boxship for Asia–North Europe service  

YM Wayfinder joins two sister vessels already operating on LNG on the FE3 route.

Milind Homkar, Flex Commodities. Flex Commodities appoints Milind Homkar as trade controller  

Dubai-based trader brings in finance and audit specialist to lead trade control function.

Launching ceremony of Kypros Island vessel. Safe Bulkers launches first methanol dual-fuel bulk carrier at Chinese shipyard  

Greek dry bulk operator launches first methanol-powered vessel as part of its fleet renewal programme.

MAmmoSS graphic. Mitsubishi Shipbuilding receives order for ammonia fuel handling system  

MAmmoSS system will support shop testing of ammonia marine engines from two licensors.

Neoliner Origin vessel. Kongsberg Maritime to lead EU Horizon project targeting wind-assisted propulsion at scale  

A 15-partner European consortium will use two full-scale vessel demonstrators to validate wind propulsion technology.

Petrobras logo. Petrobras warns of extended MGO and VLSFO supply suspension at Port of Itaqui  

Fuel distributor announces pipeline maintenance shutdowns affecting both MGO and VLSFO supply.

Richard Berkling, PowerCell Group. PowerCell secures SEK 50m marine fuel cell order for two liquid hydrogen cargo ships  

Swedish fuel cell maker wins contract to power two North Sea hydrogen vessels by 2028.

Wärtsilä hydrogen engine. MatH2 consortium launched to tackle hydrogen materials barriers  

New Finnish-led alliance targets materials compatibility challenges holding back hydrogen adoption.