Fri 21 Sep 2012, 13:21 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Crude-oil futures rose in Asian trading Friday, rebounding after a selloff earlier this week and supported by concerns over potential supply disruptions from the Middle East following escalating violence in the region. On the New York Mercantile Exchange, light, sweet crude futures for delivery in November traded at $93.13 a barrel at 0657 GMT, up $0.71 in the Globex electronic session. November Brent crude on London's ICE Futures exchange increased by $0.47 to $110.50 a barrel. The gains come after Brent crude settled slightly higher Thursday. Crude prices rallied last week on news of quantitative easing in the U.S., but those gains were more than erased at the beginning of this week as prices plummeted 9%.

Thursday morning oil futures at ICE and NYMEX have continued to retreat keeping track of the performance of equities and the declining euro. Prices have been weighed down by the Chinese purchasing manager index, published by the HSBC, which indicated that the country's economy continued to slow down. Risk aversion among market players rose at that point in time making investors turn to the dollar. Oil futures' downward potential remained limited however, and they have found strong supports at 950.00 dollars. This has caused a technical counter-reaction that has made quotations test their upward potential in the second half of the day. According to Commerzbank analysts, the decline that occurred at the beginning of the week has been too extreme and could not continue at that pace. After three days that partly brought about a loss of some 8%, markets needed to take a breather so that market participants could consolidate their riskier positions. US economic data published in the afternoon came out mixed; with the positive Philly Fed manufacturing index has slightly bolstered prices. In late trade, fears of supply shortages due to a fire at a refinery in Venezuela renewably provided some more impetus, but this was only a psychological factor, as the production of the refinery was not halted. After their sharp losses at the beginning of the week, the downward movement has been suspended for the time being and oil futures settled with gains yesterday.

OPEC: Global oil demand is poised to be depressed for the next 18 months while supply levels from OPEC countries are at fairly comfortable levels, the West's energy agency the IEA said. The IEA said it made no significant changes to its global oil demand outlook and forecast demand would grow at a steady rate of around 0.8 million barrels per day (bpd) or 0.9% in both 2012 and 2013. Some analysts said the oil demand outlook would probably be marked down by the IEA in the future.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 963.25 dollars on Thursday. This was 5.00 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 81,100 contracts the traded volume was far above average.

The stochastic indicator has given a buying impulsion at the Brent and the Gasoil charts at ICE this morning, whereas it has remained neutral for the WTI crude. If the indicator's lines also cross at the WTI charts, this would point to an additional bullish signal and a continuation of the upward consolidation. Technical analysts don't expect that this already indicates a change of the trend after the losses at the beginning of the week. According to them, the upward correction is likely to be limited.

U.S.

Nymex access recovering : Oil futures have hardly changed on Globex electronic trading platform this morning after yesterday evening's highs. The Nikkei 25 index as well as the euro have slightly recovered and thus bolster prices at ICE and NYMEX. The traded volume is on average. Market players now look ahead to the development at stock and forex markets. There are no important economic indicators scheduled today.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 20-9)

380cst $627
180cst $702
MGO $1055

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 20-9)

380cst $643
180cst $698
MGO $1060

Singapore (correct as per 14:30hrs LT-delivered indications)

Crude is rising with WTI +$1.48. Singapore paper is bullish with +$16.75 for 180cst and +$16.85 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst +$16.75 and 380cst +$16.90 with MGO contracts Oct +$2.10 and Nov +$2.14. The cargo market is sinking with 180cst -$27.39, 380cst -$26.48 and MGO -$4.26.

The Singapore Fuel Oil markets crashed more than $26.0 during the morning Platts window yesterday tracking the previous massive drop in crude values. The latest Singapore heavy residual inventory showed a build of +1.04 mbbl to 19.98 mbbl. The delivered bunker premiums were around $9.0-10.0 above cargo prices yesterday. This morning the market is trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $655
180 cst $670
MGO $960

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA is well supplied, with some demand picking up, although the on-going maintenance at the Flushing refinery was still affecting high sulphur availability. With short cutter stocks underpinning the markets and a heavy maintenance programme for September with two important North Sea oilfields set for a one month closure. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 640
(1.0 %) :$ 685
180cst: $ 665
(1.0 %):$ 740
MGO 0.1%S: $964

BP   MGO  

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