Fri 6 Jul 2012, 12:57 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil prices at the ICE fell below support lines at midday after having repeatedly tested resistances without succeeding to breach them. In a quiet trade and a lack of fundamentals to give direction strong resistance lines eventually caused a technical downward correction that is limited for the time being by the strong WTI support at 85.60 dollars. Before the release of US employment data not much volatility is seen as traders will wait for the figures before deciding whether to go long or short.

Oil prices traded in a narrow lateral range in electronic morning trading at the ICE and the NYMEX, market players being cautious after Wednesday's US holiday. The threat of Norway's oil and gas producers to shut down more platforms until Monday pushed oil prices before noon. Several resistance lines were breached in the process, triggering a string of technical buying orders that helped oil prices to fresh intraday highs. In the afternoon, with the opening of NYMEX session, the dollar rose strongly after China surprisingly moved to lower its benchmark interest rate for the second time in less than a month and the European Central Bank cut its main interest rate to a historic low of 0.75% as expected. The dollar's rise weighed on the euro and oil prices that consequently lost ground at this time of the day. Oil futures rose once again after weekly DoE data showed that crude-oil inventories fell by significantly more than expected.

ICE Gasoil contract for July delivery settled at 889.00 dollars on Thursday. This was 12.25 dollars above Wednesday's settlement. With some 53,500 contracts the traded volume was on average.

The lines of the Stochastic indicator crossed at the overbought level at all charts yesterday, giving markets a selling signal. Should the RSI breach the 70% line an additional bearish signal would be triggered. The overbought market makes oil prices susceptible to a downward correction which is also encouraged by the recent price rally. The WTI crude currently sells 11% above its settlement price of last Thursday. The euro's losses in the same period could still tempt market players to take profit.

U.S.

Nymex access losing: Oil futures stay bearish in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning after their overnight drop. The traded volume is above average. Traders eye equity and forex markets today as well as a string of economic indicators. The most important of which will be US employment data in the afternoon.

API's: Crude oil -3.0; distillates -1.1; gasoline -1.4 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.5%
DOE's; Crude oil -4.3; distillates -1.1; gasoline +0.2 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -0.6%
Forecasts: Crude oil -0.9; distillates -0.1; gasoline +1.2 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 5-7)

380cst $603
180cst $623
MGO $925

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 5-7)

380cst $599
180cst $650
MGO $930

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is turning bearish again after a bullish run with WTI -$1.10. Singapore paper is turning as well with -$5.75 for 180cst and -$5.75 for 380cst for Jul, and for Aug 180 cst -$4.30 and 380cst -$4.85 with MGO contracts Jul +$0.40 and Aug +$0.41. The cargo market is slowing with 180cst +$7.69, 380cst +$2.83 and MGO +$0.65.

The Singapore fuel oil market prices were up more than +$2.75 during the morning window. The Singapore heavy residual inventory reported a strong build of +3.1 mbbl to 23.72 mbbl; a record two year high. The bunker premiums rose to $11.25 above cargo prices yesterday as on surging crude prices after the window. This morning markets are trading down.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $605
180 cst $615
MGO $850

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Although the worries on the Euro zone and global oil demand is slowing continue, the avail constraints continue to underpin both hsfo and lsfo levels and Crude surging Yesterday. Not much relief is expected within the next couple of weeks, with continuing loading delays, cutter stock shortages and arbitrage loadings reported. High premiums are charged for prompt enquiries, if any avails at all.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 586
(1.0 %) :$ 632
180cst: $ 601
(1.0 %):$ 670
MGO 0.1%S: $882

MGO  

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Rapid and reliable fuel quality intelligence is critical to protecting vessels, machinery, operations and commercial performance.