Thu 31 May 2012, 12:22 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil prices were little changed this morning, after the hefty losses Yesterday. Continuing worries over Spain and Greece plus bearish US data were countered only slightly by the publication of some positive German unemplyment data.

Oil futures at the ICE and the NYMEX started lower in electronic morning trading, breaching first support lines early in the day. The bearish sentiment resulted mainly from the situation in Spain where rising recapitalization costs are hurting the economy. The country could become the second candidate that to leave the European monetary union. Consequently traders' risk aversion rose significantly which led to a selling of risky assets such as the euro and oil and supported the safe-haven dollar. Morose US and euro zone indicators added to the bearish sentiment and tempted market participants to take profit which eventually led to a price collapse at the ICE and the NYMEX in the course of which several support lines were breached. When the Stochastic oscillator's two lines crossed, technically motivated selling orders kept weighing on the oil complex until late in the session. Only the 102.80 dollar support for the Brent and the WTI's 87,10 dollar support stopped the slide and limited downside. The data released by the API at 10.30 p.m. had no immediate influence on oil prices.

ICE Gasoil contract for June delivery settled at 882.50 dollars on Wednesday. This was 28.50 dollars below Tuesday's settlement. With some 54,600 contracts the traded volume was about on average.

The selling signal that was triggered by the Stochastic indicator Wednesday gives markets a bearish signal also this morning while the RSI is seen neutral at ICE and NYMEX charts. Yesterday's collapse should tempt traders to take some profit by covering their short positions which would entail a modest upward correction in the morning. The overall market sentiment is yet bearish and traders will also watch DoE data, economic indicators and the situation in Spain for direction from the fundamental side.

U.S.

Nymex access losing: Oil prices linger close to Wednesday's lows in East-Asia and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning, consolidating in a tight range. The traded volume is about on average. Investors eye the release of the DoE data and a string of important economic indicators for direction today.

API's: Crude oil -0.4; distillates -0.6; gasoline +2.1 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +1.8%
DOE's; due out tonight
Forecasts: Crude oil -0.4; distillates -0.6; gasoline +2.1 million barrels vs previous week.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 30-5)

380cst $620
180cst $655
MGO $935

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 30-5)

380cst $615
180cst $650
MGO $940

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude dropped like a stone with -$1.60, Singapore paper is gaining bearish as well with -$11.75 for 180cst and -$10.50 for 380cst for Jun, and for Jul 180 cst -$11.45 and 380cst -$10.65 with MGO contracts Jun -$1.34 and Jul -$1.39. The cargo market is starting respond, losing with 180cst -$8.64, 380cst -$8.97 and MGO -$2.30.

The Singapore fuel oil markets extended its weakness by more than $8.5/mt during the Platts window yesterday tracking the crude movement. The June incoming arbitrages are estimated at around 4.0 million mt, quite a decent number. The delivered bunker premiums hovered around $6.25 above cargo prices. Front month bunker fuel swaps lost approx. $22/mt. Prices were a notch stronger at the backend as 2013 papers lost approx. $18.5/mt while 2014 was down by approx. $14.5/mt. Prices are getting reasonable again esp. at the back of the curve. Markets are trading higher this morning.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $625
180 cst $635
MGO $870

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

With crashing crude levels, little buying interest is reported. Most suppliers are fully booked till the end of the month, with cargoes only expected at the end of this week, keeping the avails levels tight, with more fixtures expected in June servicing the Eastern arbitrage.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 606
(1.0 %) :$ 645
180cst: $ 632
(1.0 %):$ 650
MGO 0.1%S: $886

MGO  

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