Thu 3 May 2012, 13:41 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



Oil prices have lost some ground in the morning, after the euro declined on an unconvincing Spanish bond auction and weaker than expected European economic indicators. Both the ICE G.Oil and the Brent have tested their second supports at 997.50 dollars resp. 117.60 dollars, whereas the WTI crude tested its next support at 104.70 dollars.

Oil futures at ICE and NYMEX consolidated near Tuesday's settlement level on Wednesday morning. Along with the slightly bearish technical constellation, disappointing economic data from the euro zone and a significantly stronger dollar caused some profit taking until the afternoon. The G.Oil and the Brent at ICE, as well as the WTI crude breached their first supports but market players remained cautious ahead of the DOE's data on US oil inventories. After the data was released, traders reacted hesitatingly, as builds in crude oil stocks were opposed to draws in product stocks. At last, the bearish tone predominated, given the fact that crude oil stocks throughout the country were the highest since September 1990 and Cushing crude stocks marked a record high. Consequently, quotations continued retreating, breaching more supports. By this time, the RSI also provided a new selling impulsion and so the technical selling pressure rose in the evening. Even though US oil inventories data triggered the downward correction in the evening, the ADP's disappointing figures regarding the labor market, the stronger dollar, worse than expected European economic data and the bearish technical situation had already prompted investors to take profits before.

ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 999.50 dollars on Wednesday. This was -14.00 dollars below Tuesday's settlement. With some 51,300 contracts the traded volume was on average.

The stochastic indicator is still bearish for all contracts at ICE and NYMEX this morning and the RSI also gives a selling signal after having fallen through the 70% line on Wednesday, see also technical analysis. Nevertheless, technical analysts remain cautious, taking a rather neutral stance. Given yesterday's lows the downward potential has already exhausted for the greater part and key supports at 998.75 dollars for the G.Oil and at 105.05 dollars for the WTI crude have proved strong for the time being. If these marks are breached, the downward correction might continue.

U.S.

Nymex access losing: Oil futures have hardly changed in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning. The WTI crude has edged lower, testing its first support at 105.05 dollars. Futures at ICE have traded sideways in a narrow range, however. The traded volume has been far below average. Investors now watch the performances of stock and forex markets, and today's economic indicators.

API's: Crude oil +2.0; distillates -4.2; gasoline -3.9 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +1.0%
DOE's; Crude oil +2.8; distillates -1.9; gasoline -2.0 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +1.3%
Forecasts: Crude oil +2.1; distillates -0.3; gasoline -0.9 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 3-5)

380cst $751
180cst $784
MGO $1020

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 3-5)

380cst $713
180cst $743
MGO $1058

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is turning bearish with WTI -$0.94 Singapore paper is tracking crude with -$12.50 for 180cst and -$12.10 for 380cst for May, and for June 180 cst -$12.00 and 380cst -$10.90 with MGO contracts May -$1.54 and June -$1.52. The cargo market is not yet reacting with 180cst +$4.00, 380cst +$4.86 and MGO +$0.14.

The Singapore fuel oil markets rose more than $4/mt Yesterday morning. Market remains supported by buying interest in the paper swaps market. The delivered bunker premiums remained around $6.75 above cargo prices. This morning markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $710
180 cst $718
MGO $980

Fujairah (delivered indications 3-5)

380cst $727
180cst $747
MGO $1057

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

The ARA markets softened Yesterday, with weaker crude keeping buying interest subdued. The Eastern arbitrage is at workable levels. The loading and barge congestions are improving, with normal waiting times expected at the end of the week.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 690
(1.0 %) :$ 740
180cst: $ 728
(1.0 %):$ 752
MGO 0.1%S: $999

MGO  

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