The Stochastic oscillator is still bearish at the ICE but not giving any clear signals at the WTI chart, the U.S. benchmark being still supported by the accelerated reversal of the Seaway pipeline. So technical analysts expect oil prices to consolidate ahead of the DoE data and support and resistance lines to prove strong.
Oil prices in London and New York lost some ground in electronic morning trading, weighed down by the bearish technical situation and a little optimistic market sentiment. The Brent's 118 dollar support proved strong, limiting the losses and the oil futures rebounded in the wake of a positive start of European equity markets and a higher euro, hitting the 998,50 dollar resistance (G.Oil) and the 119,20 dollar resistance (Brent), lifted by the succesful Spanish debt auction and positive euro zone indicators. In the afternoon oil prices diverged at ICE and NYMEX. The strongly technically driven trade kept prices in London within their support and resistance lines while the WTI in New York was driven by the preponed reversal of the Seaway pipeline. The mixed API data had no influence on oil prices in late trading.
ICE Gasoil contract for May delivery settled at 994,25 dollars on Tuesday. This was 0,25 dollars above Monday's settlement. With some 54,700 contracts the traded volume was about on average.
The euro has shed earlier gains dropping to its second resistance after the opening of the European session, as forex traders remain cautious ahead of another Spanish debt sale tomorrow. Yesterday, auctions of Spanish 12- and 18-month bonds have appeased investors worries regarding the country's debt. Moreover, surprisingly positive German and EU ZEW economic indicators provided some upside yesterday morning. Apart from this, the IMF revised up their forecast of global economic growth to 3.5% in 2012. However, auctions of 2- and 10-year bonds are still due on Thursday. Thus, market participants are not yet ready to take greater risks. The euro has therefore already touched its second support at the beginning of European trade. From the technical stance, the euro has not received any decisive impulsions. Traders will be oriented towards support and resistance lines while waiting for Spain's debt sales. The euro last sold at 1.3108 dollar after 1.3126 last night. Supports are seen at 1.31 dollar, at 1.3090 dollar, at 1.3065 dollar and at 1.3035 dollar. Resistances are seen at 1.3145 dollar, at 1.3170 dollar, at 1.3195 dollar and at 1.3210 dollar.
• The euro zone's current account showed a deficit of -1,3 billion Euros in February 2012, vs a surplus of +3,7 billion euros in the previous month (revised figure). Analysts expected a surplus of +5.0 billion euros.
U.S.
Nymex access neutral: Oil futures are little changed in Asian trading and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning due to a lack of momentum as neither forex markets nor equities are giving direction. The traded volume is below average. Market participants will eye today's DoE data and forex markets as there are no important economic indicators on the agenda today.
API data showed a surge in US crude oil inventories and a stronger-than-expected decline in refined product stocks while refinery run rates have slightly increased last week.
Market participants evaluated the mixed data as neutral and so didn't hardly react to them last night. US gasoline demand dropped again last week as MasterCard SpendingPulse shows (-1.3% to 8.686 mbpd which is 6.8% below year-ago figures). Even over the Easter holidays did demand not pick up due to exorbitant prices at the pump.
Houston (ex-wharf indications 18-4)
380cst $707
180cst $735
MGO $1037
New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 18-4)
380cst $709
180cst $737
MGO $1047
Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)
Crude is now bouncing with WTI +$1.18. Singapore paper is reacting cautiously with +$1.25 for 180cst and +$0.45 for 380cst for May, and for June 180 cst +$1.00 and 380cst +$0.45 with MGO contracts May +$0.05 and June +$0.02. The cargo market is still on the bearish track having followed paper's falls at the beginning of the week, although slowing with 180cst -$4.84, 380cst -$4.60 and MGO -$0.82.
The Singapore fuel oil markets lost more than $4.0 during the morning Platts window yesterday tracking crude movement. The delivered bunker premiums surged up more than $7.0 above cargo prices yesterday as fundamentals improved and are rebalancing.
High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $710
180 cst $725
MGO $975
Fujairah (delivered indications 18-4)
380cst $720
180cst $745
MGO $1050
ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)
Demand in the northwest European bunker fuel market picked up Tuesday, as crude was trading firmer than the previous day. Barge congestion remained severe at Rotterdam, allowing steep premiums to be demanded for prompt delivery with a knock on also being felt in Antwerp where loading delays are now also being experienced with some booked until after the weekend. The barge congestion has led to Rotterdam pricing above Antwerp for another day, a reversal of the usual situation.
Rotterdam
Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 686
(1.0 %) :$ 755
180cst: $ 713
(1.0 %):$ 782
MGO 0.1%S: $996
