After their earlier lows during morning trading, oil prices rise on speculation Europe’s economy may weather the region’s debt crisis, as equity markets trimmed opening losses and the euro recovered against the dollar. Asian stocks lost some ground last night but European equities soon recovered from the losses they marked at the beginning of the session, lifting the euro as well as oil prices. Reports on the ECB having bought Italian bonds has temporarily eased investors' worries. The technical constellation likewise provided for some momentum. NYMEX C.Oil's support at 95.00 dollars proved strong. Yet, oil futures still trade far from their first resistance lines. Only above these resistances, larger buying orders become likely. As to the fundamental side, there was no decisive news this morning. Currently, oil prices slightly draw back from their highs.
Yesterday, After a phase of consolidation in electronic morning trading, oil futures lost ground at midday along with the euro and European equity markets as doubts about a solution of Italy's and Greece's debt problems weighed on market sentiment. Bearish signals from the technical constellation (RSI fell through 70% line, the two lines of the Stochastic crossed) fuelled the collaps. The decline was halted after the release of the DOE's petroleum inventories data that showed high draws across the oil complex. In a first market reaction the data were regarded bullish and large-scale buying orders were triggered. When the figures revealed that the draws were not as much the result of an increase in demand but of a decrease in imports, eventually the bearish market sentiment prevailed and oil futures shed most of their earlier gains late in the session.
ICE Gasoil contract for November delivery settled at 998.75 dollars on Wednesday. This was 4.25 dollars above Tuesday's settlement. With some 44,000 contracts the traded volume was below average. The contract expires today.
Both Stochastic and RSI indicators gave a selling signal at all charts Wednesday and are still seen bearish this morning. The overall technical situation remains nevertheless neutral as Wednesday's downward correction erased some of the bearish momentum and the short-term uptrends are still intact. Medium-term support lines are not within reach and investors need the short-term supports at 112.10 dollars for the brent and 95.00 dollars fort the WTI for direction today. Should these lines be breached, more technical selling is expected. The WTI crude is supported at 95.00 dollars today, its first resistance is seen at 97.85 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 115.00 dollars, its first support is at 112.10 dollars.
U.S.
Nymex Access trading sideways: Oil prices are little changed in Asian trading hours and on Globex electronic trading platform this morning, WTI crude consolidating just above its first support line while the brent has already fallen through. Asian equities lost ground this morning in the wake of the negative settlement of European and US equities. Today, traders eye a string of important USeconomic data to be released in the afternoon. The traded volume is slightly below average.
API's: Crude oil +0.1; distillates -2.9; gasoline -1.5 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -1.5%
DOE's; Crude oil -1.4; distillates -6.0; gasoline -2.1 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization -2.7%
Forecasts: Crude oil +0.7; distillates -1.9; gasoline -0.4 million barrels vs previous week.
Houston (ex-wharf indications 9-11)
380cst $681
180cst $731
MGO $1008
Very tight avails for 180 cst
New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 9-11)
380cst $683
180cst $733
MGO $1011
Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)
Crude is starting to lose with WTI -$0.64. Singapore paper is gaining bearish momentum, losing with -$10.50 for 180cst and -$9.25 for 380cst for Nov, and for Dec 180 cst -$10.35 and 380cst -$10.25 with MGO Nov contracts at -$2.15 and for Dec at -$2.00. The cargo market starting to turn as well, losing with 180cst -$0.96, 380cst -$2.09 and MGO -$0.80.
The Singapore fuel oil markets approx -$1.0/mt during the Platts window yesterday. Delivered bunker premium slipped to around $14.0/mt above the cargo prices as the high outright prices dampened overall bunker demand. Singapore bunker prices have also been more expensive than surrounding ports in Asia. Bunker fuel swaps were assessed mixed. Front month papers lost a little both in Singapore and Rotterdam while forward prices managed to post a small loss in both markets. East / west spread remains rather broad trading around $42 for December. Viscosity spread between 180cst and 380cst papers broadened notably for the last few days trading above $10/mt in the front and above $12 for 2012 papers. Markets are trading lower this morning.
High premiums for prompt deliveries.
380 cst $706
180 cst $718
MGO $975
ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)
Trading activity in the Northwest European market bunker market remained subdued Wednesday as some market participants withdrew their inquiries in the afternoon anticipating lower bunker levels today. Brent crude futures traded over $2/barrel day-on-day lower in the afternoon as Italian 10-year bond yields rose above 7% on the nation’s debt concerns. Rotterdam and Antwerp remain very tight and experience ongoing HSFO shortages. Tight HSFO supplies on a recent VLCC loading for Singapore continued to trigger operational delays at loading installations in Rotterdam.
Rotterdam
Indications for delivered bunkers:
380cst : $ 660
(1.0 %) :$ 688
180cst: $ 687
(1.0 %):$ 714
MGO 0.1%S: $ 995
