Fri 30 Sep 2011, 12:50 GMT

Global Vision Market Report



As analysts expected oil prices traded in a narrow lateral range in the morning and eased slightly at midday, affected by the rising dollar and the slump in European equity markets. ICE gasoil hit its first support line in the process. Traders do not expect much volatility ahead of the weekend, today being also the end of the third quarter. US indicators that are going to be released in the afternoon could have some impact on prices.

Yesterday, Oil prices rose in a volatile market Thursday morning, supported by the strong euro that benefited from expectations of a positive result in the German vote on the expansion of the euro-zone rescue fund (EFSF). The vote also lifted equity markets and oil that rose until first resistance lines, where the strong 105.85 dollar line of the brent and 84.00 dollars WTI limited the rise and oil reversed its gains along with equity markets in Europeand the USA. The still bleak global economic outlook cannot still overshadows oil and equity markets and will keep weighing. In after-hour trading and this morning in East-Asia oil pared some of the earlier losses.

ICE Gasoil contract for October delivery settled at 898.25 dollars on Thursday. This was 9.25 dollars below Wednesday's settlement. With some 53,100 contracts the traded volume was about on average.

The Stochastic indicator at the WTI chart is still slightly bullish this morning while the two lines of the indicator at the brent and the gasoil chart have converged and are thus in neutral mode for the time being. Futures are likely to consolidate today, so technical analysts, with the market taking cues mainly from foreign exchange and stock markets. Investors are expected to square risky positions and to avoid any major positioning ahead of the weekend, today also being the end of the quarter. The upper line of the trendchannels will limit today's gains after having proved strong yesterday, while there is still room for more downside target. So analysts maintain a bearish trading bias in anticipation of fresh lows. The WTI crude is supported at 80.50 dollars today, its first resistance is seen at 83.40 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 105.80 dollars, its first support is at 102.60 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining: Oil futures consolidate in East Asiaand Globex electronic trade this morning as market participants are being cautious ahead of a string of important euro zone and US indicators to be released in the course of the day. The euro/dollar parity and equity markets will be eyed for direction also today. The traded volume is about on average.

Houston (ex-wharf indications 29-9)

380cst $631
180cst $675
MGO $918

Very tight avails for 180 cst

New Orleans (ex-wharf indications 29-9)

380cst $633
180cst $678
MGO $921

Singapore (correct as of 1430hrs LT - delivered indications)

Crude is bouncing up slightly with WTI +$0.25 Singapore paper is not reacting yet, losing with -$5.50 for 180cst and +$5.75 for 380cst for Oct, and for Nov 180 cst -$7.35 and 380cst -$5.70 with MGO Oct contracts at -$1.51 and for Nov at -$1.50. The cargo market is slowing with 180cst +$0.14, 380cst +$0.84 and MGO +$1.09.

The Singapore fuel oil markets gain around $4.25 during the Platts window tracking the volatile crude prices. The supplies are expected to be getting tighter as lack of on spec bunker grade products in the market. The delivered bunker premiums remains at $16.00 above cargo prices yesterday. Bunker fuel oil swaps gained app. $1.00 at the front and lost nearly $2.00 at the backend of the forward curve. This morning markets are trading slightly higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $640
180 cst $650
MDO $912

Fujairah (delivered indications 30-9)

380cst $662
180cst $680
MGO $1048

Avails issue are sustaining the market.

ARA (Amsterdam - Rotterdam - Antwerp)

Bunker fuel oil values in the main Northwest European bunker hubs weakened Yesterday, tracking a $5.75/mt drop in FOBRotterdambarges that followed a $1/barrel fall in ICE Brent futures, sources said. Crude oil prices remained under pressure on concern that Europe’s debt crisis would linger on. Demand across NWE remained firm as buyers reacted to some bullish economic data from the US. Rotterdam continued to experience tight high sulfur fuel oil supplies as one VLCC was expected to get loaded next week. There is still tight availability for all products. In the MOC 1% was traded at $ 626 with hs $ 600.25-608 levels traded.

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 610
(1.0 %) :$ 632
180cst: $ 635
(1.0 %):$ 662
MGO 0.1%S: $ 897

MGO  

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WinGD methanol and ethanol webinar invitation. WinGD to host webinar on methanol- and ethanol-flexible fuel engine technology  

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