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Technical indicators: bullish

Oil prices rise again during morning trade. At ICE first resistance lines have been breached. The dollar losing strength gives some support. WTI Crude still stays below its first support. The spread between ICE Brent and the WTI Crude has reached a new record of over 24 dollars.

Yesterday, oil prices at ICE and NYMEX lost ground in Asian trading Tuesday but recovered with rising equity markets only to follow European shares down and up again at midday. The session in New York was mixed. Worse-than-expected US indicators and a pessimistic OPEC report weighed on the oil complex that reversed earlier gains when key resistance lines proved strong (Brent at 106 dollars, gasoil at 900 dollars). Later in the session, oil led a rebound among commodities after the FED promised to extend near-zero interest rates for two more years and to use a range of methods to bolster the economy. Bullish API data also lent support.

Yesterday again OPEC downgraded its global oil demand growth outlook for this year and warned this might not be the last cut. Thus, the organisation signalled that mounting economic woes are also affecting the world's crude consumption. In its monthly report, the OPEC reduced its global demand growth forecast for this year by 150,000 barrels of oil a day due to a downward revision in U.S. growth and weakening Chinese demand. Global oil demand is still seen to rise by 1.2 million barrels a day and the downgrade represents only a fraction of the 88.14 million barrels a day OPEC expects to be consumed this year worldwide.

ICE gasoil for August delivery settled at 886.25 dollars on Tuesday. This was 14.00 dollars below Monday's settlement. With some 41,500 contracts the traded volume was significantly below average.

RSI and Stochastic indicators signal an oversold market at all charts, raising the probability of a technical upward correction. However, the solid resistance lines at the brent and the gasoil chart limit the gains for the time being. Only well above these levels buying signals will be triggered. The first support for the WTI crude is seen at 80.00 dollars, its first resistance at 83.05 dollars. The Brent's first resistance is seen at 106.00 dollars, its first support is at 101.50 dollars.

U.S.

Nymex Access gaining: Oil futures are steady on a high level in Asian trading and Globex electronic trading this morning, holding on to Tuesday's gains. The brent is trading well above 104.00 dollars for a barrel. The traded volume is significantly above average.

APIs: crude oil -3.3; distillates +1.4; gasoline +2.5 million barrels vs previous week. Refinery utilization +0.9%

DOEs: due out tonight.

Forecasts: Crude oil +1.0; distillates +1.4; gasoline -0.4 million barrels vs previous week

Houston (ex-wharf indications 9-8)

380 cst $624
180 cst $656
MDO $924

New Orleans (ex wharf indications 9-8)

380 cst $627
180 cst $658
MDO $928

Singapore (closed today due to a National Holiday)

Crude is dropping still, losing with WTI -$2.84. Singapore paper is reflecting it, losing with -$13.00 for 180cst and -$12.90 for 380cst for Aug, and for Sep 180 cst -$12.95 and -$13.05 for 180cst with MGO Aug contracts at -$1.55 and for Sep at -$1.50. The cargo market is ignoring the drop, gaining with 180cst +$3.04, 380cst +$3.08 and MGO -$0.18.

The Singapore fuel oil markets were closed yesterday on public holiday and reopens today. This morning both markets are trading higher.

High premiums for prompt deliveries.

380 cst $631
180 cst $637
MDO $890

Fujairah (delivered indications 10-8)

380 cst $651
180 cst $687
MDO $1076

Rotterdam

Indications for delivered bunkers:

380cst : $ 609
(1.0 %) :$ 642
180cst: $ 635
(1.0 %):$ 669
MGO 0.1%S: $ 903